Published on: 2025-12-31

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report: Is Trump Being Used By The Nigerian Government

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The U.S. military strike on the ISIS-affiliated Lakurawa in Nigeria, ordered by President Trump, may have inadvertently benefited other terror groups like Boko Haram and the Fulani militias, which are responsible for the majority of Christian persecution in the region. This action raises questions about the strategic effectiveness of U.S. counter-terrorism efforts in Nigeria. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate, given the limited information and potential biases in source reporting.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The Nigerian government manipulated U.S. actions to weaken Lakurawa, thereby indirectly strengthening Boko Haram and Fulani militias. This is supported by reports suggesting the strike did not target the primary threats to Christians. However, the lack of direct evidence of manipulation and the complexity of the regional conflict are key uncertainties.
• Hypothesis B: The U.S. strike was a genuine attempt to combat ISIS-affiliated threats in Nigeria, with unintended consequences. This is supported by the U.S. focus on ISIS globally, but contradicts the reported ineffectiveness in addressing the main sources of Christian persecution.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the alignment of the strike’s outcomes with Nigerian government interests and the reported ineffectiveness against primary threats. Indicators such as future U.S. strikes on Boko Haram or Fulani infrastructure could shift this judgment.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The Nigerian government has influence over U.S. target selection; Lakurawa is a minor threat compared to Boko Haram and Fulani militias; U.S. intelligence on Nigerian terror groups is comprehensive.
• Information Gaps: Detailed intelligence on the decision-making process for the U.S. strike; comprehensive data on the operational capabilities of Lakurawa post-strike.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in source reporting from Judd Saul and Truth Nigeria; risk of Nigerian government misinformation to influence U.S. actions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The U.S. strike could lead to a recalibration of counter-terrorism strategies in Nigeria, potentially affecting regional stability and U.S.-Nigeria relations.

• Political / Geopolitical: Possible strain on U.S.-Nigeria relations if manipulation is confirmed; increased scrutiny of U.S. foreign policy decisions.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Potential empowerment of Boko Haram and Fulani militias; increased threat to Christians and other civilians.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased propaganda or misinformation campaigns by involved parties.
• Economic / Social: Continued violence could destabilize local economies and exacerbate humanitarian crises.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Conduct a thorough review of intelligence leading to the strike; engage with Nigerian authorities to clarify objectives and align on counter-terrorism priorities.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop partnerships with local and regional actors to address root causes of extremism; enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: U.S. and Nigeria align strategies, reducing terror threats.
  • Worst: Increased violence and regional instability.
  • Most-Likely: Continued tension with periodic adjustments in strategy.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Donald Trump – Former U.S. President
• Judd Saul – Filmmaker, Evangelist, Founder of Truth Nigeria
• J. Peter Pham – Former U.S. Special Envoy for the Sahel Region of Africa
• Lakurawa – ISIS-affiliated group in Nigeria
• Boko Haram – Terrorist group in Nigeria
• Fulani Militias – Armed groups in Nigeria

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, Nigeria, U.S. foreign policy, Christian persecution, Boko Haram, Fulani militias, ISIS

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Cognitive Bias Stress Test: Expose and correct potential biases in assessments through red-teaming and structured challenge.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Use probabilistic forecasting for conflict trajectories or escalation likelihood.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map relationships between state and non-state actors for impact estimation.

Explore more:
National Security Threats Briefs ·
Daily Summary ·
Support us