Published on: 2025-09-09

Intelligence Report: Nigerias Boko Haram insurgency Is there a way out – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The resurgence of Boko Haram in Nigeria, exacerbated by Niger’s withdrawal from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), presents a significant threat to regional stability. The most supported hypothesis is that Boko Haram will continue to exploit the weakened regional security framework, leading to increased attacks. A strategic recommendation is to enhance multinational cooperation and strengthen local counterterrorism efforts. Confidence level: Moderate.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Boko Haram’s resurgence is primarily due to Niger’s withdrawal from the MNJTF, which has created security gaps along the Nigeria-Niger border, facilitating increased insurgent activity.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The resurgence is driven by Boko Haram’s strategic shift to exploit internal Nigerian vulnerabilities, such as competition for military resources and local socio-economic challenges, rather than external factors like Niger’s withdrawal.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported by the evidence of increased cross-border smuggling and attacks following Niger’s withdrawal. However, Hypothesis B is plausible given Nigeria’s internal security challenges.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that Niger’s withdrawal directly correlates with increased Boko Haram activity. Another assumption is that Nigeria’s internal security issues are secondary to external influences.
– **Red Flags**: Lack of direct evidence linking Niger’s withdrawal to specific attacks. Potential bias in attributing Boko Haram’s resurgence solely to external factors without considering internal dynamics.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The resurgence of Boko Haram could destabilize the region, impacting economic activities and increasing humanitarian crises. The porous borders may facilitate arms smuggling, escalating violence. Geopolitically, weakened regional cooperation could embolden other insurgent groups.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence sharing and joint operations among regional states to mitigate cross-border insurgent activities.
• Strengthen Nigeria’s internal security apparatus, focusing on community engagement and socio-economic development to reduce local vulnerabilities.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful multinational cooperation reduces Boko Haram’s operational capabilities.
  • Worst Case: Continued insurgent attacks destabilize the region, leading to increased displacement and economic decline.
  • Most Likely: Boko Haram maintains a persistent threat, with sporadic successes in counterterrorism efforts.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Malik Samuel
– Oluwole Ojewale
– Mutaru Mumuni Muqthar
– Tukur Gasau

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus