Published on: 2025-02-18

Intelligence Report: Operation Okra proves worth of combined-arms training – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Operation Okra has demonstrated the effectiveness of combined-arms training in enhancing the capabilities of Iraqi forces against Daesh. The operation, which concluded in December, involved significant contributions from Australia, focusing on air support and training Iraqi forces. The strategic use of combined-arms training has proven to be a key factor in reclaiming territory from Daesh, with notable success in the recapture of Ramadi.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Effective training programs, international cooperation, and robust military infrastructure.

Weaknesses: Initial lack of robust facilities and limited initial knowledge of the mission.

Opportunities: Improved regional stability and enhanced military capabilities of Iraqi forces.

Threats: Persistent propaganda from Daesh and evolving threats from militia groups.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The success of Operation Okra in Iraq may encourage similar training programs in neighboring regions, potentially leading to increased regional stability. However, the ongoing threat from Daesh and other groups could spill over into adjacent areas, necessitating continued vigilance and cooperation.

Scenario Generation

Best-case scenario: Continued success in training programs leads to a stable and self-sufficient Iraqi military.

Worst-case scenario: Resurgence of Daesh or similar groups undermines regional stability.

Most likely scenario: Gradual improvement in regional security with ongoing international support.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The operation’s success highlights the importance of combined-arms training in countering insurgency threats. However, the persistent threat from Daesh and other groups remains a significant risk to regional stability. The potential for propaganda to affect morale and the evolving nature of militia threats must be continuously monitored.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms to counter propaganda and misinformation.
• Invest in infrastructure to support ongoing training and operational readiness.
• Strengthen regional alliances to ensure a coordinated response to emerging threats.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, sustained training efforts will lead to a more stable and capable Iraqi military. In the worst-case scenario, a resurgence of Daesh could destabilize the region. The most likely outcome is a gradual improvement in security, contingent on continued international support and cooperation.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Matthew Bickerton, Ash Collingburn, Jeffrey Cumming, and Will Cumming. These individuals have played crucial roles in the training and operational success of Operation Okra.