Operational Update: Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces Continue Conflict Amid Humanitarian Crisis

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1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The conflict in Sudan remains unresolved as it enters its fourth year, with significant humanitarian impacts including widespread displacement and casualties. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continue to engage in hostilities, with no effective ceasefire in place. The situation is exacerbated by external influences and failed mediation efforts. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The conflict will persist due to entrenched power struggles between SAF and RSF, with external actors unable to enforce a ceasefire. Supporting evidence includes ongoing hostilities, failed mediation efforts, and control over key regions by both factions. Key uncertainties include potential shifts in external support or internal leadership dynamics.
• Hypothesis B: A breakthrough in negotiations could occur if external pressures align effectively, leading to a ceasefire. This is contradicted by current evidence of failed mediation and continued violence, but could be supported by increased international diplomatic efforts or changes in regional alliances.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the ongoing conflict dynamics and lack of progress in mediation. Indicators that could shift this judgment include successful diplomatic interventions or significant changes in external support patterns.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The SAF and RSF remain committed to military solutions; external actors continue current levels of involvement; humanitarian conditions will further deteriorate without intervention.
• Information Gaps: Detailed intelligence on internal decision-making processes within SAF and RSF; precise impact of external arms flows on conflict dynamics.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in reporting from involved external actors; risk of manipulated narratives from both SAF and RSF to influence international perception.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict in Sudan could lead to further regional instability and humanitarian crises, affecting neighboring countries and international interests.

• Political / Geopolitical: Prolonged conflict may destabilize the region, affecting neighboring states like Chad and South Sudan, and complicating international diplomatic efforts.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Continued violence could create vacuums for extremist groups to exploit, increasing regional security threats.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased cyber operations targeting Sudanese infrastructure or international actors involved in mediation efforts.
• Economic / Social: Economic decline and social fragmentation could worsen, leading to increased refugee flows and strain on regional economies.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance monitoring of conflict zones and external arms flows; increase diplomatic engagement with regional actors.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for neighboring countries; strengthen partnerships with international organizations for humanitarian aid.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Successful ceasefire and political negotiations lead to stabilization.
  • Worst: Escalation of conflict with increased regional spillover.
  • Most-Likely: Continued stalemate with sporadic violence and humanitarian deterioration.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (SAF Chief)
• Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti (RSF Leader)
• UNHCR (United Nations Refugee Agency)
• Quad (United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE)

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, civil conflict, humanitarian crisis, regional stability, mediation efforts, power struggle, displacement, international diplomacy