Published on: 2025-11-04

Intelligence Report: Over Half of Americans Expect a Political Candidate Will Be Assassinated Within 5 Years New Survey Shows – International Business Times

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The survey indicates a significant concern among Americans about the potential for political violence, specifically the assassination of a political candidate within the next five years. The most supported hypothesis is that this expectation reflects a broader societal anxiety about increasing political violence, driven by recent high-profile incidents and divisive political rhetoric. Confidence Level: Moderate. Recommended action includes enhancing protective measures for political figures and addressing the root causes of political polarization.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The expectation of political candidate assassination is primarily driven by recent high-profile violent incidents and media coverage, creating a perception of increased political violence.

Hypothesis 2: The expectation reflects a genuine increase in political violence and societal acceptance of such acts, influenced by deepening political polarization and extremist rhetoric.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 1 is better supported as it aligns with the pattern of media amplification of isolated incidents, though Hypothesis 2 cannot be dismissed given the rise in extremist activities.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions include the belief that media coverage accurately represents the frequency and severity of political violence. A red flag is the potential underreporting of thwarted plots or lesser-known incidents. There is also a risk of cognitive bias in interpreting survey results, potentially overestimating the likelihood of future violence based on recent events.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The perception of increased political violence could lead to heightened security measures, impacting civil liberties and public trust in institutions. There is a risk of escalation if political rhetoric continues to polarize, potentially leading to more frequent and severe incidents. This environment may also be exploited by foreign adversaries to destabilize domestic politics.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance security protocols for political figures and events, focusing on intelligence sharing and threat assessment.
• Promote initiatives to reduce political polarization and address underlying grievances that fuel extremist rhetoric.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Reduction in political violence through effective policy and societal engagement.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of violence leading to significant political instability.
  • Most Likely: Continued incidents of political violence with increased security measures and public anxiety.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Charlie Kirk, Robert Pape, Paul Pelosi, Gretchen Whitmer, Brett Kavanaugh, Josh Shapiro.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus