Published on: 2025-04-24

Intelligence Report: Pahalgam Terror Attack Shows Pakistan’s Calculated Diplomacy-Terror Operation – The Times of India

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Pahalgam terror attack highlights a coordinated strategy by Pakistan, intertwining diplomatic efforts with terrorist activities to internationalize the Kashmir issue and assert geopolitical influence. The attack, targeting non-Muslims, underscores a methodical approach to incite communal unrest in India. Recommendations include strengthening diplomatic channels and enhancing intelligence cooperation to counteract these strategies.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

General Analysis

The attack coincided with significant diplomatic activities, including visits by U.S. officials and Indian leaders’ international engagements, suggesting a deliberate timing to maximize geopolitical impact. The use of weapons likely sourced from Taliban caches post-Afghanistan withdrawal indicates a shift in terrorist capabilities, reflecting the unintended consequences of abandoned Western weaponry. Pakistan’s dual-track strategy involves leveraging its mineral wealth for economic diplomacy while supporting proxy violence to maintain regional influence.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The attack signifies a potential escalation in proxy violence, with risks of increased communal tensions in India. The strategic use of Taliban-sourced weaponry poses a threat of enhanced militant capabilities in the region. Pakistan’s actions may strain diplomatic relations, particularly if perceived as undermining regional stability. The economic overtures tied to mineral wealth could shift global supply chains, impacting geopolitical alliances.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence-sharing frameworks with regional and global partners to preemptively identify and counteract terrorist activities.
• Strengthen diplomatic engagement with Pakistan to address underlying tensions and discourage support for proxy violence.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Diplomatic efforts lead to de-escalation and increased regional cooperation.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of violence leading to broader regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Continued low-intensity proxy conflicts with intermittent diplomatic engagements.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Asim Munir
– JD Vance
– Debasish Bhattacharya
– Sushil Nathaniel
– Jennifer Nathaniel
– Bitan Adhikary
– Sohini Adhikary
– Donald Trump
– Narendra Modi

6. Thematic Tags

(‘national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus’, ‘cybersecurity’, ‘counter-terrorism’, ‘regional focus’)