Published on: 2025-03-08

Intelligence Report: Pakistan Sets April 1 Deadline For ‘Afghan Card’ Holders ‘Illegal Foreigners’ To Leave – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Pakistan has announced a deadline of April 1 for Afghan Card holders and other ‘illegal foreigners’ to leave the country voluntarily, with deportations to commence thereafter. This decision is part of a broader repatriation program aimed at addressing security concerns linked to militant activities. The move raises significant concerns for the Afghan community in Pakistan, particularly regarding potential repression upon return to Afghanistan.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

ACH (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses)

The decision to repatriate Afghan Card holders is likely influenced by competing hypotheses regarding the security threat posed by Afghan nationals in Pakistan. The Pakistani government attributes militant violence to Afghan citizens, a claim rejected by the Taliban-led government in Kabul.

Indicators Development

Early indicators of potential radicalization or terrorist planning include increased scrutiny of Afghan communities and heightened security measures at borders. Monitoring these indicators is crucial for preemptive action.

Scenario Analysis

Potential scenarios include a mass exodus of Afghans from Pakistan, leading to humanitarian challenges, or increased tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan if deportations are perceived as unjust. The situation could also exacerbate regional instability if not managed diplomatically.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The repatriation program poses risks to national security by potentially destabilizing the Afghan community in Pakistan and straining Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. Economic interests may also be impacted due to the sudden displacement of a significant population. Regional stability is at risk if the Afghan government perceives the deportations as hostile.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic dialogue with Afghan authorities to ensure a coordinated and humane repatriation process.
• Implement measures to monitor and support the Afghan community during the transition to prevent radicalization.
• Consider technological solutions for tracking and managing the repatriation process to ensure transparency and accountability.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: The repatriation process is managed smoothly with international cooperation, minimizing humanitarian impact and maintaining regional stability.

Worst-case scenario: The process leads to significant humanitarian crises and deteriorating relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, potentially escalating into broader regional conflict.

Most likely outcome: A mixed scenario where some level of tension and humanitarian issues arise, but diplomatic efforts mitigate the worst impacts.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions several significant individuals and entities:

• Shehbaz Sharif
• Qaiser Khan Afridi
• Abbas Khan
• Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
• Taliban

These individuals and groups are central to the unfolding situation and their actions will significantly influence the outcomes of the repatriation program.