Published on: 2025-09-02

Intelligence Report: Peru pledges to investigate the heinous killing of Indonesian diplomat – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The assassination of Indonesian diplomat Zetro Leonardo Purba in Lima, Peru, is under investigation with two primary hypotheses: a targeted assassination related to diplomatic or personal matters, or a random act of violence amid rising crime rates in the city. The hypothesis of a targeted assassination is currently better supported due to the methodical nature of the attack. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Enhance diplomatic security measures and pursue a thorough investigation to ascertain motive and prevent escalation.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Targeted Assassination Hypothesis**: The attack was a deliberate assassination, potentially linked to Purba’s diplomatic role or personal threats. This hypothesis is supported by the precise execution of the attack and the use of a motorcycle for a quick escape, suggesting premeditation.

2. **Random Act of Violence Hypothesis**: The killing was a result of the high crime rate in Lima, with no specific targeting of Purba due to his diplomatic status. This is supported by the general increase in crime and extortion in the city, as noted in the report.

Using ACH 2.0, the targeted assassination hypothesis is more consistent with the available evidence, particularly the methodical execution of the crime.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The assumption that the attack was either targeted or random without considering other motives, such as personal vendettas unrelated to his diplomatic role.
– **Red Flags**: Lack of clear motive and the immediate dismissal of the targeted nature by some officials without thorough investigation. The reliance on crime statistics as a rationale for the attack could be misleading.
– **Blind Spots**: Potential involvement of non-state actors or organized crime groups not yet considered.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Diplomatic Tensions**: Failure to resolve the case could strain Peru-Indonesia relations, impacting diplomatic and economic ties.
– **Security Risks**: Increased threat perception among foreign diplomats in Peru, potentially leading to heightened security measures and reduced diplomatic engagement.
– **Geopolitical Impact**: If linked to broader regional issues, this could affect regional stability and diplomatic relations in South America.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Immediate Action**: Strengthen security protocols for foreign diplomats in Peru, including enhanced surveillance and protection measures.
• **Investigative Focus**: Prioritize the investigation into potential motives related to Purba’s diplomatic role and personal threats.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  – **Best Case**: Quick resolution of the case with clear motive identified, leading to improved diplomatic relations.
  – **Worst Case**: Prolonged investigation with no clear resolution, leading to diplomatic fallout and increased security concerns.
  – **Most Likely**: Ongoing investigation with gradual uncovering of motive, requiring sustained diplomatic engagement to manage tensions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Zetro Leonardo Purba
– Victor Guivar
– Sugiono
– Elmer Schialer
– Irwan Butapierre
– Dina Boluarte

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, diplomatic security, regional stability, crime investigation