Published on: 2026-01-05

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report: Which countries could be in Trump’s sights after Venezuela

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent US operation in Venezuela under President Trump’s administration indicates a potential shift towards more aggressive foreign policy actions in the Western Hemisphere. The most likely hypothesis is that Trump will pursue similar assertive measures against Greenland and Colombia, driven by strategic and economic interests. This assessment is made with moderate confidence, given the explicit threats and strategic interests outlined by Trump.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Trump will continue aggressive actions similar to Venezuela in Greenland and Colombia. This is supported by his statements regarding national security interests and economic resources, particularly rare earth minerals in Greenland and drug trade issues in Colombia. However, uncertainties include international legal constraints and potential NATO conflicts.
• Hypothesis B: Trump’s rhetoric is primarily posturing to gain leverage in negotiations or domestic political support, with no immediate plans for military actions. This is supported by the lack of concrete evidence of imminent operations and the diplomatic responses from Greenland and Colombia.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to Trump’s explicit threats and the recent precedent set in Venezuela. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include changes in diplomatic engagements or military mobilizations in the regions.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: Trump’s administration prioritizes national security and economic interests in foreign policy; US military capabilities are sufficient to support further operations; international backlash will be manageable.
• Information Gaps: Specific details on US military planning or diplomatic communications with Greenland and Colombia; internal decision-making processes within Trump’s administration.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential cognitive bias towards interpreting Trump’s rhetoric as indicative of action; source bias from Trump’s public statements; possible strategic deception by US or other involved parties.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The developments could lead to increased geopolitical tensions and destabilization in the Western Hemisphere, affecting global alliances and economic markets.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential strain on NATO relations if US actions in Greenland proceed; increased regional instability in Latin America.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Heightened risk of retaliatory actions or insurgency in targeted regions; potential for increased drug trafficking as a countermeasure.
• Cyber / Information Space: Likely increase in propaganda and misinformation campaigns from affected nations; cyber operations targeting US interests.
• Economic / Social: Disruption in global rare earth supply chains; potential economic sanctions impacting regional economies.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase intelligence monitoring of military movements and diplomatic communications; engage in diplomatic dialogue with NATO allies and affected nations.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop contingency plans for potential military engagements; strengthen alliances and partnerships to mitigate geopolitical fallout.
• Scenario Outlook: Best: Diplomatic resolutions and strengthened alliances; Worst: Military conflicts and regional destabilization; Most-Likely: Continued tensions with strategic posturing.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Donald Trump (US President)
• Jens Frederik Nielsen (Greenland’s Prime Minister)
• Gustavo Petro (Colombian President)
• Not clearly identifiable from open sources in this snippet.

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, foreign policy, national security, geopolitical tensions, rare earth minerals, drug trade, NATO relations, strategic interests

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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