Published on: 2025-09-13

Intelligence Report: Prabowo makes solidarity visit to Qatar following Israel attack discusses regional issues with UAE president – CNA

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic judgment is that Prabowo’s visit to Qatar and subsequent discussions with the UAE president are primarily aimed at reinforcing Indonesia’s diplomatic stance and solidarity with Qatar amidst escalating regional tensions. The most supported hypothesis suggests that Indonesia seeks to position itself as a mediator and bolster its diplomatic influence in the Middle East. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor Indonesia’s diplomatic engagements and potential mediation efforts in the region.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Prabowo’s visit is a strategic move to strengthen Indonesia’s diplomatic ties with Qatar and the UAE, positioning Indonesia as a key player in Middle Eastern geopolitics.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The visit is primarily a symbolic gesture of solidarity with Qatar, aimed at reinforcing bilateral relations without significant geopolitical ambitions.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported due to Indonesia’s active engagement in regional discussions and the emphasis on economic and security cooperation with the UAE.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that Indonesia has the capacity and intent to influence Middle Eastern geopolitics significantly. Another assumption is that Qatar and the UAE are receptive to Indonesia’s diplomatic overtures.
– **Red Flags**: The lack of detailed outcomes from the meetings and potential overestimation of Indonesia’s influence in the region. The absence of explicit commitments from Qatar and the UAE raises questions about the visit’s tangible impact.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The visit could enhance Indonesia’s diplomatic profile but also risks entangling it in complex regional conflicts. Potential escalation in the Middle East could impact global energy markets and regional stability. Indonesia’s involvement may strain its relations with other countries, depending on its stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor subsequent diplomatic engagements by Indonesia in the Middle East to assess shifts in regional alliances.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • **Best Case**: Indonesia successfully mediates regional tensions, enhancing its global diplomatic standing.
  • **Worst Case**: Indonesia’s involvement leads to diplomatic fallout with key global partners.
  • **Most Likely**: Indonesia strengthens bilateral relations with Qatar and the UAE without significant geopolitical shifts.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Prabowo Subianto
– Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
– Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan
– Khalil al-Hayya

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional diplomacy, Middle East geopolitics, Indonesia foreign policy