Published on: 2025-05-03

Intelligence Report: Prospects And Challenges Of A Yemeni Ground Offensive Against Houthis – Forbes

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The potential for a Yemeni ground offensive against the Houthis remains uncertain, with significant challenges and strategic considerations. While airstrikes have intensified under recent directives, the absence of a unified ground force and the fragmentation within the anti-Houthi coalition pose substantial obstacles. The likelihood of a ground offensive is moderate to high, particularly along Yemen’s western coast, but success depends on cohesive military strategy and international support.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

General Analysis

The Yemeni government, supported by international air campaigns, is contemplating a ground offensive against the Houthis. Despite increased airstrikes targeting Houthi military infrastructure, the effectiveness of a ground operation is questionable due to the lack of a unified command among anti-Houthi forces. The withdrawal of United Arab Emirates ground forces further complicates the situation, leaving a reliance on local tribal and semi-tribal forces with varying combat capabilities.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The fragmented nature of the anti-Houthi coalition could lead to operational inefficiencies and infighting, undermining the offensive’s success. The absence of a cohesive strategy may allow the Houthis to consolidate power further. Additionally, the potential for increased regional instability and disruption of commercial naval routes in the Red Sea poses significant economic and security risks.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance coordination among anti-Houthi factions to establish a unified command structure.
• Increase intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance support to improve operational planning and execution.
• Consider diplomatic engagements to mitigate regional tensions and explore avenues for peace talks.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful coordination leads to significant territorial gains and a shift in regional power dynamics.
  • Worst Case: Fragmentation and lack of support result in a failed offensive, strengthening Houthi control.
  • Most Likely: Limited territorial gains with ongoing conflict and regional instability.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Alex Almeida
– Mohammed Al Basha
– Tariq Saleh

6. Thematic Tags

(‘national security threats, regional focus, military strategy, Middle East conflict’)