Published on: 2025-08-25

Intelligence Report: QA How can the EU help startups go global – POLITICO.eu

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis suggests that the EU can enhance global competitiveness for startups by fostering a supportive regulatory environment and improving access to capital and talent. This is based on evidence of successful companies like Nord Security thriving in Europe. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: The EU should prioritize regulatory reforms and investment in digital infrastructure to support startup growth.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The EU can help startups go global by creating a supportive regulatory environment and improving access to capital and talent. This hypothesis is supported by the success of companies like Nord Security, which have leveraged local talent and regulatory frameworks to achieve global reach.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The EU’s current regulatory and business environment is insufficient to help startups scale globally, and significant changes are needed to compete with regions like Silicon Valley and China. This hypothesis is based on the challenges mentioned by entrepreneurs in accessing large-scale venture capital and the need for more robust cybersecurity measures.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**:
– Hypothesis A assumes that existing EU policies are adequate for nurturing startups.
– Hypothesis B assumes that the EU’s regulatory environment is a significant barrier to global expansion.

– **Red Flags**:
– Potential bias from successful entrepreneurs who may not represent the broader startup ecosystem.
– Lack of comprehensive data on the effectiveness of current EU policies across different sectors.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic**: Failure to adapt could result in the EU losing competitive ground to other regions, impacting economic growth and innovation.
– **Cybersecurity**: Insufficient cybersecurity measures could expose startups to threats, undermining trust and stability.
– **Geopolitical**: The EU’s ability to influence global tech standards may diminish if startups cannot scale effectively.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Mitigate Risks**: Enhance cybersecurity frameworks and provide incentives for startups to adopt robust security measures.
• **Exploit Opportunities**: Invest in digital infrastructure and streamline regulatory processes to attract global talent and capital.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  – **Best Case**: EU startups achieve global competitiveness, driving economic growth and innovation.
  – **Worst Case**: Regulatory inertia leads to stagnation, with startups relocating to more favorable environments.
  – **Most Likely**: Incremental improvements in policy and infrastructure support moderate growth.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Toma Okmanas: Founder of Nord Security and Nexos AI, providing insights into the startup ecosystem and cybersecurity.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, economic competitiveness, regulatory environment, digital infrastructure