Published on: 2025-03-12

Intelligence Report: Ramadan 2025 Which countries grow the most dates – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The global date production is heavily concentrated in the Middle East, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Algeria producing nearly half of the world’s dates. This concentration presents both economic opportunities and geopolitical risks, especially during Ramadan when demand for dates peaks. Strategic recommendations include monitoring agricultural outputs and trade patterns to mitigate potential supply disruptions.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The Middle East’s dominance in date production is attributed to its favorable climate for date palms, which thrive in long, hot summers. Egypt leads with approximately 20% of global production, followed by Saudi Arabia and Algeria. The variety of dates, such as Medjool and Ajwa, are not only culturally significant but also economically valuable due to their high nutritional content and demand during Ramadan. The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by calls for boycotts against Israeli date exports, which could impact regional trade dynamics.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The concentration of date production in politically sensitive regions poses risks to global supply chains. Any regional instability, such as conflicts or trade embargoes, could disrupt supply and increase prices. Additionally, the boycott movement against Israeli products highlights potential economic and diplomatic tensions. These factors could affect national security and regional stability, particularly if they lead to broader economic disruptions.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance monitoring of agricultural outputs in key date-producing countries to anticipate supply changes.
• Encourage diversification of date sources to reduce dependency on a few countries.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to address and mitigate boycott impacts on regional trade.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, stable political conditions and favorable weather will maintain current production levels, ensuring a steady supply of dates. In the worst-case scenario, regional conflicts or severe weather could significantly disrupt production and trade. The most likely outcome is a moderate increase in production with occasional supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant entities such as Tridge and the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement. These organizations play crucial roles in the global date trade and geopolitical landscape. Understanding their influence and actions is essential for stakeholders navigating the complexities of international trade and diplomacy.