Published on: 2025-09-08

Intelligence Report: Red Sea cable cuts disrupt internet in Asia Middle East Houthis deny involvement as Microsoft warns of disruption – Fortune

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the Red Sea cable cuts were a result of accidental damage, possibly by maritime activity, rather than a deliberate attack by the Houthis. Confidence in this assessment is moderate due to the lack of direct evidence linking the Houthis to the incident and their denial of involvement. Recommended action includes enhancing maritime monitoring and securing undersea infrastructure to prevent future disruptions.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The cable cuts were accidental, caused by maritime activities such as anchor dragging or ship movement.
– **Supporting Evidence**: The Red Sea is a busy maritime route, and accidental cable damage is not uncommon. No direct evidence links the Houthis to the incident.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The cable cuts were a deliberate act by the Houthis to disrupt regional communications.
– **Supporting Evidence**: The Houthis have previously targeted infrastructure and have been involved in regional conflicts, suggesting a motive to disrupt communications as a pressure tactic.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported due to the lack of concrete evidence for deliberate sabotage and the Houthis’ denial of involvement.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**:
– Maritime activity in the Red Sea is frequent and poses a risk to undersea cables.
– The Houthis’ denial is assumed to be truthful in the absence of evidence to the contrary.

– **Red Flags**:
– Lack of detailed forensic analysis on the cable damage.
– Potential cognitive bias towards assuming Houthi involvement due to their historical actions.

– **Blind Spots**:
– Limited visibility into the operational capabilities and intentions of non-state actors in the region.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The disruption of undersea cables poses significant risks to regional internet connectivity, affecting economic activities and potentially escalating geopolitical tensions. If deliberate, it could signal a new tactic in regional conflicts, increasing the vulnerability of digital infrastructure. The incident highlights the need for enhanced protection of critical infrastructure and improved international cooperation in monitoring maritime activities.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance maritime surveillance and monitoring systems to detect and prevent accidental or deliberate damage to undersea cables.
• Strengthen international collaboration to secure critical infrastructure in the Red Sea region.
• Scenario Projections:
  – **Best Case**: Improved monitoring prevents future incidents, stabilizing regional communications.
  – **Worst Case**: Continued disruptions lead to significant economic losses and heightened regional tensions.
  – **Most Likely**: Increased focus on infrastructure security mitigates risks, but sporadic incidents may still occur.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Moammar Al Eryani: Minister of Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
– Microsoft: Warned of internet disruption due to cable cuts.
– Alcatel Submarine Networks: Oversees the affected cable system.
– GCX: Operator of the Falcon cable affected by the cuts.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus