Published on: 2025-04-10

Intelligence Report: Rising Civil Unrest Political Violence Remain Top 10 Risk for Global Businesses Allianz – Insurance Journal

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Allianz Commercial report highlights the increasing threat of civil unrest and political violence as a top risk for global businesses. With over 50% of companies identifying strikes, riots, and civil commotion (SRCC) as their primary concern, the unpredictability of these events poses significant challenges. The report underscores the necessity for businesses to develop robust contingency plans to mitigate potential losses and ensure business continuity.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The Allianz report, derived from the Allianz Risk Barometer 2025, identifies political risks and violence as a persistent global threat, ranking in the top 10 risks for four of the past five years. The unpredictability of civil unrest, unlike natural disasters, complicates preparation and mitigation efforts. The report highlights the direct and indirect impacts on businesses, including threats to employee safety, business interruptions, and property damage. Notably, the report cites over 800 significant anti-government protests in more than 150 countries, with India, the US, France, Germany, Turkey, and Spain as major hotspots.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The increasing frequency and severity of SRCC events pose substantial risks to national security, regional stability, and economic interests. Insurers face rising losses, with events in Chile, South Africa, and the US resulting in insured losses exceeding US$10 billion over the past decade. The rapid spread of unrest, facilitated by social media, amplifies economic and insured losses, highlighting the need for enhanced risk management strategies.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Develop comprehensive risk management frameworks tailored to the unpredictability of civil unrest.
• Enhance collaboration between businesses and insurers to create effective contingency and business continuity plans.
• Invest in technological solutions for real-time monitoring and rapid response to emerging threats.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Improved risk mitigation strategies lead to reduced economic and insured losses, with businesses better prepared for SRCC events.
Worst-case scenario: Continued escalation of civil unrest results in significant disruptions and financial losses, impacting global economic stability.
Most likely outcome: Ongoing challenges in predicting and managing SRCC events necessitate continuous adaptation and investment in risk management.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report references Allianz Commercial and the Allianz Risk Barometer 2025 as primary sources of data and analysis. No specific individuals are mentioned by name.