Published on: 2025-11-06

Intelligence Report: RSF commander admits to executing 2000 civilians during Sudan’s El Fasher takeover – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the RSF’s actions in El Fasher, including the execution of civilians, are part of a broader strategy of ethnic cleansing and control over strategic resources, potentially with external backing. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Intensify international diplomatic pressure and sanctions on RSF and potential external supporters to halt further atrocities and support ICC investigations.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The RSF’s execution of civilians in El Fasher is an isolated incident driven by rogue elements within the militia, not indicative of a broader strategic plan.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The RSF’s actions are part of a deliberate strategy of ethnic cleansing and control over strategic assets, potentially supported by external actors like the UAE.

Using Bayesian Scenario Modeling, Hypothesis B is more likely due to the pattern of RSF behavior, the strategic importance of El Fasher, and the documented support from external actors.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: Hypothesis A assumes a lack of centralized control within RSF, while Hypothesis B assumes coordinated strategic objectives.
– **Red Flags**: The RSF’s rapid denial followed by admission of the incident suggests potential deception. The role of external actors like the UAE needs further verification.
– **Missing Data**: Detailed evidence of external support and the internal decision-making process within RSF.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical**: Continued RSF actions could destabilize the region, affecting neighboring countries and international interests.
– **Humanitarian**: Escalating violence increases the risk of a humanitarian crisis, with mass displacement and human rights violations.
– **Economic**: Control over Sudan’s resources, such as gold, could shift regional power dynamics and economic dependencies.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Immediate Action**: Increase diplomatic efforts to pressure RSF and potential external supporters. Support ICC investigations with intelligence sharing.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  – **Best Case**: International pressure leads to cessation of violence and accountability for war crimes.
  – **Worst Case**: Escalation of violence spreads beyond Sudan, destabilizing the region.
  – **Most Likely**: Continued RSF actions with intermittent international condemnation but limited effective intervention.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Abu Lulu (Al Fateh Abdullah Idris)
– Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti)
– Mahariya Rizeigat tribe
– United Arab Emirates (UAE)

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, human rights violations, geopolitical strategy, regional instability