Published on: 2025-07-26

Intelligence Report: RSF paramilitary-led coalition forms parallel government in war-torn Sudan – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The formation of a parallel government by the RSF-led coalition in Sudan represents a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. The most supported hypothesis is that this move aims to consolidate RSF’s power and legitimacy against the military-led government. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Increase diplomatic engagement to mediate between factions and prevent further humanitarian deterioration.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The RSF-led coalition’s formation of a parallel government is a strategic move to gain international recognition and leverage in negotiations with the military-led government. This hypothesis is supported by the coalition’s emphasis on secular, democratic principles and decentralization, which may appeal to international actors.

Hypothesis 2: The RSF’s actions are primarily driven by a desire to establish control over Sudan’s resources and political landscape, using the guise of democratic reform to mask intentions of power consolidation. This is supported by the RSF’s history of human rights abuses and the ongoing rivalry with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 2 is better supported due to the RSF’s past behavior and the immediate strategic benefits of controlling resources and political power within Sudan.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions include the belief that international actors will be swayed by democratic rhetoric, and that the RSF can maintain internal cohesion. Red flags include the potential for increased violence and human rights abuses, and the lack of clear international response. The assumption that the RSF’s stated goals align with their actions may indicate deception.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The parallel government could lead to further fragmentation of Sudan, exacerbating humanitarian crises and destabilizing the region. There is a risk of increased violence, particularly in resource-rich areas. Geopolitically, this could draw in neighboring countries and international powers, complicating peace efforts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage with regional and international partners to facilitate dialogue between the RSF and military-led government.
• Monitor for signs of increased violence or human rights abuses, and prepare contingency plans for humanitarian intervention.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful mediation leads to a power-sharing agreement and reduced violence.
  • Worst Case: Escalation into full-scale civil war, with significant regional spillover.
  • Most Likely: Continued stalemate with periodic violence and humanitarian challenges.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Mohammed Hassan Osman al-Taishi

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, geopolitical instability, humanitarian crisis