Published on: 2026-02-24

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Intelligence Report: Despite drop in 2025 Russian oil exports exceed pre-war volumes report

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Despite a decrease in oil revenues, Russian crude oil export volumes remain above pre-invasion levels, primarily due to circumvention of sanctions via a “shadow fleet.” This situation undermines the effectiveness of Western sanctions, with significant implications for geopolitical stability and energy markets. Moderate confidence in this assessment due to reliance on open-source data and potential reporting biases.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Russia is effectively circumventing sanctions through a shadow fleet, allowing it to maintain high export volumes. This is supported by reports of increased exports to non-sanctioning countries and identified loopholes in enforcement. Key uncertainties include the full extent of the shadow fleet’s operations and the effectiveness of current enforcement measures.
• Hypothesis B: The increase in export volumes is primarily driven by demand from countries not participating in sanctions, rather than effective circumvention tactics. While this is supported by the high percentage of exports to China, India, and Turkey, it does not fully account for the continued high volumes despite sanctions.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the documented use of shadow fleet tactics and identified loopholes in sanctions enforcement. Indicators that could shift this judgment include new evidence of increased demand from non-sanctioning countries or improved enforcement measures leading to a decrease in export volumes.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: Sanctions enforcement is inconsistent; non-sanctioning countries will continue to import Russian oil; the shadow fleet is primarily used for sanctions circumvention; price discounts are necessary for maintaining export volumes.
• Information Gaps: Detailed data on shadow fleet operations; comprehensive tracking of oil shipments and re-exports; effectiveness of proposed sanctions enforcement measures.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in source data from think tanks with specific agendas; risk of Russian state manipulation of export data; reliance on open-source information may omit classified insights.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The persistence of high Russian oil export volumes despite sanctions could embolden Russia to continue its current geopolitical strategies, potentially destabilizing regions reliant on Russian energy. This development may also strain relationships within sanctioning coalitions if enforcement is perceived as ineffective.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased tensions between sanctioning and non-sanctioning countries; risk of fracturing within the EU over enforcement disparities.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Limited direct impact, but potential for increased funding for Russian military operations.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased Russian information operations to exploit divisions among sanctioning countries.
• Economic / Social: Continued pressure on global oil markets; potential economic strain on countries heavily reliant on Russian energy imports.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance monitoring of shadow fleet activities; increase intelligence sharing among sanctioning countries; review and close identified loopholes in sanctions enforcement.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for energy markets; strengthen partnerships with non-sanctioning countries to reduce reliance on Russian oil; invest in alternative energy sources.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Effective sanctions enforcement reduces Russian export volumes, leading to decreased funding for military operations.
  • Worst: Continued high export volumes undermine sanctions, emboldening Russian geopolitical actions.
  • Most-Likely: Incremental improvements in enforcement lead to gradual reductions in export volumes, with ongoing geopolitical tensions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)
• Isaac Levi, CREA analyst and co-author of the report
• European Union
• United States
• G7 group of nations
• China, India, Turkey (as primary importers)
• Hungary and Slovakia (as EU exceptions)

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, sanctions, energy security, geopolitical stability, Russian oil exports, shadow fleet, international trade, enforcement loopholes

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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