Published on: 2025-10-25

Intelligence Report: Saudi Arabia eyes role in Gaza to marginalize Hamas Report – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Saudi Arabia’s potential involvement in Gaza aims to marginalize Hamas and stabilize the region by supporting international peacekeeping efforts and Palestinian Authority reforms. The most supported hypothesis suggests Saudi Arabia seeks to align with U.S. and Israeli interests to enhance regional stability. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor Saudi diplomatic engagements and military movements in the region to assess alignment with broader geopolitical strategies.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Saudi Arabia intends to marginalize Hamas to align with U.S. and Israeli interests, thereby enhancing its geopolitical influence and fostering regional stability.

Hypothesis 2: Saudi Arabia’s actions are primarily driven by internal security concerns and the desire to curb Iranian influence in Gaza, using the marginalization of Hamas as a strategic tool.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 1 is better supported. The alignment with U.S. and Israeli interests, as well as the push for normalization with Israel, suggests a broader geopolitical strategy rather than a sole focus on internal security.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions include Saudi Arabia’s capability to influence Gaza politics and the willingness of international actors to support peacekeeping efforts. Red flags involve potential resistance from Hamas and other Palestinian factions, as well as the reliability of the source document. The absence of explicit support from key regional players like Egypt and Jordan could indicate overestimation of Saudi influence.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The marginalization of Hamas could lead to increased tensions and potential conflict in Gaza, affecting regional stability. Economic and geopolitical risks include disruption of oil markets and potential cyber threats from adversarial states. The strategy might also escalate Iranian proxy activities in the region.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic and military engagements closely to identify shifts in regional alliances.
• Engage with regional allies to ensure a coordinated approach to peacekeeping and governance reforms in Gaza.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful marginalization of Hamas leads to stable governance in Gaza and improved regional relations.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of conflict in Gaza and increased Iranian influence destabilize the region.
  • Most Likely: Partial success in marginalizing Hamas with ongoing regional tensions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Manal bint Hassan Radwan
– Bezalel Smotrich
– Donald Trump

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional stability, geopolitical strategy, Middle East politics