Published on: 2026-02-10

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Intelligence Report: Joint Statement on the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS Meeting on Iraq and Syria

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The meeting in Riyadh signifies a strategic shift towards integrating Syrian government efforts into the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, with a focus on detainee management and regional stability. This development is likely to enhance cooperation but may face challenges in implementation. Overall, there is moderate confidence in the coalition’s ability to maintain momentum against ISIS, contingent on sustained diplomatic and military coordination.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The integration of the Syrian government into the coalition will lead to improved regional stability and a more effective counter-ISIS strategy. This is supported by the coalition’s commitment to work with Syrian authorities and the comprehensive agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces. However, uncertainties include the Syrian government’s actual capacity and willingness to adhere to coalition goals.
• Hypothesis B: The inclusion of the Syrian government may complicate coalition efforts due to potential internal disagreements and differing strategic priorities. While the coalition’s readiness to support Syrian efforts is evident, historical tensions and lack of trust could undermine cooperation.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the formal agreements and the coalition’s unified stance. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include any deviation by the Syrian government from agreed terms or increased internal coalition dissent.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The Syrian government will act in good faith within the coalition framework; regional stakeholders will prioritize counter-terrorism over political differences; the coalition will maintain its current level of support and coordination.
• Information Gaps: Detailed terms of the agreement between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces; the Syrian government’s specific plans for counter-ISIS operations.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in coalition reporting favoring positive outcomes; risk of Syrian government misrepresenting its capabilities or intentions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The coalition’s expanded cooperation with the Syrian government could lead to significant shifts in regional dynamics, impacting both political alliances and security operations.

• Political / Geopolitical: Enhanced Syrian involvement may alter power balances, potentially leading to new alliances or exacerbating existing tensions.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Improved coordination could enhance operational effectiveness against ISIS, but risks remain if Syrian commitments are not met.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased cyber operations targeting coalition communications or propaganda efforts by ISIS to exploit perceived coalition weaknesses.
• Economic / Social: Successful reintegration of detainees could stabilize local economies and reduce social tensions, but failure could exacerbate humanitarian issues.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Establish monitoring mechanisms for Syrian compliance, increase intelligence sharing among coalition members, and enhance diplomatic engagement with Syrian authorities.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for potential setbacks, strengthen partnerships with local forces, and invest in capacity-building for Syrian and Iraqi security forces.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best Case: Full Syrian integration leads to decisive gains against ISIS, reducing regional threats.
  • Worst Case: Syrian non-compliance or internal coalition discord undermines efforts, allowing ISIS to regroup.
  • Most Likely: Gradual progress with intermittent challenges, requiring ongoing coalition adaptation and support.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Waleed A. Elkhereiji, Saudi Vice Foreign Minister
• Tom Barrack, U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy for Syria
• Syrian Democratic Forces
• Government of Syria
• Government of Iraq

7. Thematic Tags

Counter-Terrorism, coalition dynamics, regional stability, detainee management, Syrian integration, geopolitical shifts, military coordination

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• ACH 2.0: Reconstruct likely threat actor intentions via hypothesis testing and structured refutation.
• Indicators Development: Track radicalization signals and propaganda patterns to anticipate operational planning.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Analyze spread/adaptation of ideological narratives for recruitment/incitement signals.

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