Published on: 2026-01-28

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Intelligence Report: South Sudan launches offensive against opposition forces What to know

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The South Sudanese government has initiated a military offensive against opposition forces in Jonglei state, risking civilian casualties and further destabilization. The operation aims to reclaim territory lost to opposition groups, including those loyal to Riek Machar. This development indicates a potential collapse of the 2018 peace agreement, with moderate confidence in the assessment that South Sudan is effectively returning to a state of conflict.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The South Sudanese government is conducting a limited operation to regain control over specific territories without intending to escalate into full-scale war. Supporting evidence includes official statements claiming the operation is to “re-establish law and order.” However, the directive for civilians and aid groups to evacuate suggests a broader military engagement.
• Hypothesis B: The government’s actions represent a de facto return to war, undermining the 2018 peace agreement. This is supported by the recent escalation of violence, suspension of Machar, and inflammatory rhetoric from military commanders. Contradictory statements from government officials create uncertainty.
• Assessment: Hypothesis B is currently better supported due to the scale of the military operation and the rhetoric from both government and opposition figures indicating a breakdown of the peace process. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include a cessation of hostilities or renewed peace negotiations.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The government intends to regain control over Jonglei; opposition forces will resist militarily; the peace agreement is effectively non-functional.
• Information Gaps: Detailed troop movements, casualty figures, and the extent of opposition control in Jonglei are unclear.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Government and opposition statements may be biased or deceptive, aiming to manipulate international perception and support.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This military operation could lead to prolonged conflict, exacerbating humanitarian crises and destabilizing the region further.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased international condemnation and pressure on the South Sudanese government; risk of regional spillover.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Escalation may lead to increased violence and potential for ethnic conflict, complicating counter-terrorism efforts.
• Cyber / Information Space: Possible increase in propaganda and misinformation campaigns by both government and opposition.
• Economic / Social: Displacement of civilians could worsen economic conditions and strain social cohesion, impacting aid delivery and development efforts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Monitor military developments and humanitarian impacts; engage with regional partners to mediate and de-escalate tensions.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for humanitarian support; strengthen diplomatic channels to support peace negotiations.
• Scenario Outlook: Best: Renewed peace talks lead to a ceasefire. Worst: Full-scale civil war resumes. Most-Likely: Continued sporadic violence with intermittent negotiations.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Riek Machar, opposition leader
• Salva Kiir, President of South Sudan
• Lul Ruai Koang, army spokesman
• Ateny Wek Ateny, Information Minister
• White Army, ethnic Nuer militia
• International Crisis Group

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, civil conflict, peace agreement, ethnic violence, humanitarian crisis, military offensive, regional stability, information warfare

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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