Published on: 2025-03-27

Intelligence Report: South Sudan on the brink of another civil war – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

South Sudan is on the verge of a renewed civil conflict due to the breakdown of a fragile power-sharing agreement. The arrest of Riek Machar and escalating tensions between ethnic groups have exacerbated the situation. Immediate international intervention is critical to prevent further destabilization and humanitarian collapse.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

South Sudan’s political landscape is characterized by deep-seated mistrust and ethnic divisions, primarily between the Dinka and Nuer groups. The dismissal of Riek Machar‘s loyalists and the subsequent military actions by the “White Army” have intensified these divisions. The fragile peace agreement, which brought temporary stability, is now at risk of complete collapse. The recent military movements and government reshuffles indicate a power struggle that threatens to reignite widespread violence.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The potential resumption of civil war in South Sudan poses significant risks to regional stability, with possible spillover effects into neighboring countries like Ethiopia and Sudan. The humanitarian crisis is likely to worsen, with increased displacement and food insecurity. The international community’s reduced presence, following the temporary closure of embassies, limits diplomatic efforts to mediate the conflict.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Initiate immediate diplomatic engagement with key stakeholders, including Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, to restore dialogue and negotiations.
• Enhance humanitarian aid and support to mitigate the impact on displaced populations and address food security issues.
• Encourage regional actors to facilitate peace talks and deploy peacekeeping forces to prevent further escalation.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful international mediation leads to the reinstatement of the peace agreement, averting large-scale conflict.
Worst-case scenario: Full-scale civil war erupts, resulting in significant loss of life and regional instability.
Most likely scenario: Continued skirmishes and political instability, with intermittent international intervention efforts.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations but does not provide any roles or affiliations. Key figures include Salva Kiir, Riek Machar, Patrick Oyet, Richard Orengo, James Okuk, and Nicholas Haysom. These individuals are central to the unfolding events in South Sudan.