Published on: 2025-03-25

Intelligence Report: South Sudan on the brink of civil war top UN official warns – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

South Sudan is on the verge of a renewed civil war as political tensions and ethnic violence escalate. Key findings indicate that recent clashes, including attacks by the White Army militia and retaliatory government actions, have resulted in significant civilian casualties and mass displacements. The fragile peace established by the Revitalized Peace Agreement is at risk, with diplomatic efforts stalling. Immediate action is required to prevent further deterioration and to stabilize the region.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

South Sudan’s political landscape remains volatile, with unresolved rivalries between key figures such as Salva Kiir and Riek Machar. The resurgence of ethnic militias, notably the White Army, has intensified violence, particularly in the Upper Nile province. Reports of indiscriminate attacks, including aerial bombardments allegedly using barrel bombs, highlight the severity of the conflict. The humanitarian situation is dire, with large-scale displacements and allegations of child recruitment by armed groups.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The escalating conflict poses significant risks to national security and regional stability. Ethnic tensions threaten to spiral into widespread violence, undermining the fragile peace process. The potential for a full-scale civil war could destabilize neighboring countries and disrupt regional economic activities. Additionally, the humanitarian crisis could lead to increased refugee flows, straining resources in host countries.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance diplomatic engagement with regional partners, including the African Union and IGAD, to mediate tensions and reinforce the peace process.
• Implement measures to protect civilians and ensure humanitarian access to affected areas.
• Encourage dialogue between key leaders, Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, to publicly reaffirm their commitment to peace.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Renewed diplomatic efforts lead to a de-escalation of violence and a recommitment to the peace agreement, stabilizing the region.

Worst-case scenario: The conflict escalates into a full-scale civil war, resulting in significant regional instability and humanitarian crises.

Most likely outcome: Continued sporadic violence with intermittent diplomatic interventions, maintaining a precarious status quo.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Salva Kiir, Riek Machar, and Nicholas Haysom. Key entities include the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), the African Union (AU), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).