Published on: 2025-10-30

Intelligence Report: Spinning genocide How is Israel using US PR firms to frame its Gaza war – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Israel’s engagement with US PR firms to influence public perception of its actions in Gaza is a strategic move to maintain support among key demographics in the United States. The most supported hypothesis is that Israel is actively using these firms to counteract negative media and social media narratives. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor PR campaigns and assess their impact on public opinion and policy shifts in the US.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Israel is using US PR firms to strategically manage its image and maintain support among American right-wing and evangelical groups, thereby countering negative perceptions resulting from the Gaza conflict.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The engagement with PR firms is primarily a defensive measure to mitigate immediate reputational damage rather than a long-term strategic campaign.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is more supported due to the structured and targeted nature of the PR campaigns, including geofencing and AI-driven initiatives aimed at specific demographics.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the PR campaigns are effective in swaying public opinion and that the targeted demographics are receptive to such efforts.
– **Red Flags**: The reliance on social media as a “weapon” suggests potential overestimation of its impact. There is also a risk of backlash if these efforts are perceived as manipulative.
– **Blind Spots**: Lack of data on the effectiveness of these campaigns in changing public opinion or policy.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical**: Successful PR campaigns could bolster US support for Israel, impacting diplomatic relations in the Middle East.
– **Cyber**: Increased use of AI and social media could lead to cybersecurity risks and misinformation.
– **Psychological**: Targeted campaigns may deepen polarization within US demographics, particularly among religious and political groups.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor the effectiveness of Israel’s PR campaigns through sentiment analysis and public opinion polling.
• Prepare for potential backlash or shifts in public opinion if campaigns are exposed as manipulative.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: PR efforts successfully maintain US support, stabilizing Israel’s geopolitical standing.
  • Worst Case: Exposure of manipulative tactics leads to a loss of support and increased criticism.
  • Most Likely: Mixed results with some demographic support maintained, but increased scrutiny and criticism from others.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Benjamin Netanyahu
– Chris Pratt
– Jon Voight
– PR firms: Bridge Partners, Faith Work, Clock Tower, Havas

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus