Published on: 2025-03-31

Intelligence Report: Sudan 20th Anniversary of Darfur ICC Referral – Human Rights Watch

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The International Criminal Court (ICC) continues to face limitations in addressing crimes in Sudan, particularly outside Darfur. The ongoing conflict, marked by severe human rights violations, underscores the need for expanded jurisdiction and international cooperation. Key recommendations include enhancing ICC’s mandate and establishing internationalized justice mechanisms to ensure accountability and justice for victims.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The United Nations Security Council’s referral of the Darfur situation to the ICC in 2005 aimed to address crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide. However, the ICC’s jurisdiction remains confined to Darfur, leaving other regions of Sudan without adequate judicial oversight. Recent hostilities, including those starting in April, have seen the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces committing atrocities, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Human Rights Watch findings indicate crimes against humanity, including ethnic cleansing and sexual violence, particularly in West Darfur and Khartoum.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The limited jurisdiction of the ICC poses significant risks to regional stability and international security. The ongoing impunity for crimes in Sudan could embolden further human rights abuses, destabilizing the region and potentially impacting global economic interests. The lack of comprehensive justice mechanisms may perpetuate cycles of violence, undermining peace efforts and humanitarian responses.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Expand the ICC’s jurisdiction to cover all regions of Sudan, ensuring comprehensive accountability for crimes committed.
• Establish internationalized judicial mechanisms to complement the ICC’s efforts and address the accountability gap.
• Encourage universal jurisdiction prosecutions in domestic courts to support international justice efforts.
• Enhance cooperation between the United Nations, African Union, and European Union to support justice initiatives in Sudan.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Expanded ICC jurisdiction and international cooperation lead to successful prosecutions, deterring future crimes and stabilizing the region.
Worst-case scenario: Continued impunity and limited international intervention result in escalating violence and humanitarian crises.
Most likely scenario: Incremental progress in international justice efforts, with ongoing challenges in achieving comprehensive accountability.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report highlights the involvement of Liz Evenson and Human Rights Watch in advocating for expanded justice mechanisms. The United Nations Security Council, African Union, and European Union are identified as critical entities in supporting justice initiatives in Sudan.