Published on: 2025-04-10

Intelligence Report: Sudan accuses UAE of ‘complicity in genocide’ at world court – BBC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Sudan has filed a case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) accusing the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of complicity in genocide during Sudan’s ongoing civil war. Sudan alleges that the UAE has supported the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with military and financial aid, contributing to atrocities against the Massalit population in West Darfur. The UAE denies these claims, suggesting the case is a diversionary tactic by Sudan. The ICJ’s decision could have significant implications for international relations and regional stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

Sudan’s allegations against the UAE center around the provision of arms and support to the RSF, accused of targeting non-Arab groups, notably the Massalit community, with genocidal intent. The RSF has been implicated in systematic attacks, including the use of rape as a weapon. The UAE refutes these claims, highlighting its humanitarian efforts and denying any arms support to the RSF. The case at the ICJ underscores the complexities of international law in addressing state-sponsored actions and the challenges in proving complicity in genocide.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The case presents several strategic risks:

• National Security: The conflict in Sudan poses a risk of further destabilization, potentially spilling over into neighboring regions.
• Regional Stability: Accusations against the UAE could strain diplomatic relations within the Gulf region and with African states.
• Economic Interests: Prolonged conflict and international legal proceedings could impact trade and investment in the region.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic engagement between Sudan and the UAE to address allegations and seek peaceful resolutions.
• Support international monitoring and humanitarian efforts in Sudan to prevent further atrocities.
• Advocate for transparency in arms trade and financial transactions to prevent complicity in human rights violations.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Diplomatic negotiations lead to a peaceful resolution, reducing tensions and stabilizing the region.

Worst-case scenario: Escalation of conflict and legal battles exacerbate regional instability and economic disruption.

Most likely outcome: Prolonged legal proceedings with intermittent diplomatic efforts, maintaining a status quo of tension and uncertainty.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti)
• Ameirah Alhefeiti
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• Massalit community