Published on: 2025-02-10

Intelligence Report: Sudan army-aligned foreign ministry sets path to elections amid civil war – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Sudanese foreign ministry, aligned with the army, has outlined a roadmap for elections amidst ongoing civil conflict. The plan includes forming a transitional government, appointing a civilian prime minister, and initiating national dialogue with civil society groups. This initiative aims to end the civil war, which has displaced millions and resulted in significant casualties. The ministry calls for international support to facilitate a democratic transition and restore stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

Scenario Analysis

The roadmap presents multiple future scenarios: successful transition to a civilian government, prolonged conflict with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), or potential escalation of ethnic violence, particularly in regions like Darfur.

Key Assumptions Check

Assumptions include the willingness of political and civil society groups to engage in dialogue and the capacity of the Sudanese military to maintain control over strategic areas. The assumption that international bodies will provide necessary support is also critical.

Indicators Development

Key indicators include the level of RSF resistance, the progress of national dialogue, and international community engagement. Monitoring humanitarian access and ethnic violence levels will be crucial.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The primary risk is the potential for continued or escalated conflict, particularly in regions like Darfur and West Kordofan. The RSF’s control in these areas poses a threat to national stability. Economic interests could be impacted by prolonged instability, affecting regional trade and humanitarian aid delivery. The potential for ethnic violence could further complicate peace efforts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage international diplomatic engagement to support the transitional government’s formation and ensure free and fair elections.
• Enhance humanitarian aid delivery by negotiating access with RSF and other local actors.
• Strengthen monitoring of ethnic violence and implement preventive measures to protect vulnerable populations.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful establishment of a transitional government leading to peaceful elections and stabilization. Worst-case scenario: Escalation of conflict, particularly in Darfur, leading to further displacement and humanitarian crises. Most likely outcome: Protracted negotiations with intermittent violence, requiring sustained international intervention.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Abdel Fattah al Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Key entities include the Sudanese military, the Rapid Support Forces, and international organizations like the United Nations, African Union, and Arab League.