Published on: 2025-03-07

Intelligence Report: Sudan lodges case against UAE at ICJ over ‘complicity in genocide’ – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Sudan has filed a case against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), alleging complicity in genocide against the Masalit group in Sudan. The complaint accuses the UAE of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied militias in committing acts of genocide, including murder, theft, rape, and forcible displacement. The UAE has denied these allegations, citing a lack of legal and factual basis. The case could have significant implications for regional stability and international relations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

Scenario Analysis

Multiple scenarios have been considered, including potential diplomatic fallout between Sudan and the UAE, increased regional tensions, and the impact on international diplomatic relations.

Key Assumptions Check

Assumptions include the UAE’s denial of support to the RSF and the potential for the ICJ to impose emergency measures. These assumptions are critical to understanding the potential outcomes of the case.

Indicators Development

Indicators to monitor include any shifts in diplomatic relations, changes in military alliances, and responses from international bodies such as the United Nations.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The case poses risks to regional stability, with potential for increased ethnic tensions and violence in Sudan. Economic interests may be affected if international sanctions or diplomatic measures are imposed. The case could also set a precedent for international legal actions related to state complicity in genocide.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic dialogue between Sudan and the UAE to de-escalate tensions.
• Monitor developments at the ICJ and prepare for potential legal and diplomatic outcomes.
• Strengthen regional alliances to mitigate the impact of potential instability.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Diplomatic resolution and increased cooperation between Sudan and the UAE.

Worst-case scenario: Escalation of regional conflict and international sanctions.

Most likely outcome: Prolonged legal proceedings with intermittent diplomatic negotiations.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations involved in the case:

• Raoul Wallenberg Center for Human Rights
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• General Abdel Fattah al Burhan