Published on: 2025-04-18

Intelligence Report: Sudan No respite for civilians amid unrelenting war and aid access barriers – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing civil war in Sudan has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and critical infrastructure destroyed. Despite recent aid deliveries, significant barriers such as insecurity and bureaucratic obstacles continue to hinder relief efforts. Strategic recommendations focus on enhancing aid access and addressing the root causes of the conflict.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied:

Scenario Analysis

The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces presents several potential future scenarios. These include prolonged stalemate, escalation leading to regional instability, or a negotiated settlement. Each scenario poses distinct threats to national and regional stability.

Key Assumptions Check

Assumptions regarding the conflict’s duration and the international community’s capacity to intervene effectively are critical. Challenging these assumptions reveals vulnerabilities in current strategies and highlights the need for adaptive approaches.

Indicators Development

Key indicators of escalating threats include increased displacement rates, rising food insecurity, and deteriorating infrastructure. Monitoring these indicators is essential for timely response and mitigation efforts.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The conflict’s continuation threatens regional security, with potential spillover effects into neighboring countries. Economic impacts include disrupted trade routes and increased humanitarian aid costs. Politically, the conflict undermines governance and exacerbates existing tensions.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance diplomatic efforts to facilitate a ceasefire and initiate peace talks between conflicting parties.
• Increase international pressure to remove bureaucratic barriers hindering aid delivery.
• Develop contingency plans for potential regional spillover effects.
• Scenario-based projections suggest that without intervention, the humanitarian crisis will worsen, necessitating increased international aid and support.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Stéphane Dujarric, Vibhu Mishra