Published on: 2025-04-15

Intelligence Report: Sudan paramilitary declares rival government two years into civil war – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan have declared the formation of a rival government, escalating the ongoing civil war. This development poses significant challenges to the existing military-led administration and exacerbates the humanitarian crisis. The United States has condemned RSF’s actions, particularly their alleged targeting of civilians in Darfur. Immediate international diplomatic engagement is recommended to prevent further destabilization.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The RSF’s declaration of a “Government of Peace and Unity” represents a strategic move to consolidate power in regions under their control. This action directly challenges the authority of the current military administration, potentially leading to a bifurcation of governance in Sudan. The RSF’s entrenchment in Darfur and their signing of a charter in Nairobi indicate a long-term strategy to establish legitimacy and control. The endorsement of a transitional constitution suggests an attempt to gain international recognition and support.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The declaration of a rival government by the RSF increases the risk of prolonged conflict and potential fragmentation of Sudan. This situation threatens regional stability and could lead to further displacement of populations, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. The targeting of civilians by the RSF could result in international sanctions and loss of support from key global players. The conflict’s continuation poses risks to economic interests, including disruptions to trade routes and resource extraction.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to mediate between the RSF and the military administration to prevent further escalation.
• Strengthen international monitoring and reporting mechanisms to ensure accountability for violations of humanitarian law.
• Support humanitarian aid initiatives to address the immediate needs of displaced populations in Sudan.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful diplomatic intervention leads to a ceasefire and negotiations for a unified government.

Worst-case scenario: The conflict intensifies, leading to further fragmentation and regional spillover.

Most likely outcome: Continued stalemate with intermittent clashes, prolonging the humanitarian crisis.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations, including Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, as well as the Rapid Support Forces. These entities play crucial roles in the ongoing conflict and its resolution.