Published on: 2025-11-13

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Intelligence Report: Sudan RSF pushes east as conflict intensifies – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is escalating, with the RSF advancing eastward and employing drone strikes. The most supported hypothesis is that the RSF aims to encircle and weaken SAF strongholds, potentially leading to a strategic advantage. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Increase diplomatic engagement to broker a ceasefire and provide humanitarian aid to affected regions.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The RSF’s eastward push is a strategic maneuver to encircle and isolate SAF strongholds, aiming to force a military advantage and negotiate from a position of strength.

Hypothesis 2: The RSF’s movements are primarily opportunistic, exploiting SAF vulnerabilities without a coherent long-term strategy, driven by immediate tactical gains rather than strategic objectives.

Hypothesis 1 is more likely given the coordinated nature of the RSF’s actions, including the use of drone strikes and targeting of strategic corridors, suggesting a planned operation rather than opportunistic advances.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions: The RSF has the capability and resources to sustain an eastward push; SAF will continue to resist without significant external support.

Red Flags: Reports of atrocities and revenge killings may indicate attempts to intimidate or demoralize opposition forces and civilians.

Deception Indicators: Potential misinformation regarding the scale of RSF advances or SAF resistance could be used to manipulate international perception and response.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The continued conflict risks further destabilization of Sudan, exacerbating humanitarian crises and potentially spilling over into neighboring regions. The use of drone strikes and encirclement tactics could lead to increased civilian casualties and displacement, straining international aid efforts. Politically, the conflict may embolden other regional actors to intervene, either directly or through proxies, complicating peace efforts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage regional and international stakeholders to mediate a ceasefire and initiate peace talks.
• Increase humanitarian aid and logistical support to affected areas to alleviate civilian suffering.
• Monitor for signs of external intervention or support to either party, which could escalate the conflict.
• Best-case scenario: Successful mediation leads to a ceasefire and initiation of peace negotiations.
• Worst-case scenario: The conflict escalates into a full-scale civil war, with significant regional implications.
• Most-likely scenario: Continued skirmishes with intermittent attempts at negotiation, prolonging the humanitarian crisis.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

RSF leadership, SAF command, UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk, International Organization for Migration (IOM).

7. Thematic Tags

Regional Focus: Sudan, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, Military Strategy

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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