Published on: 2025-04-11

Intelligence Report: Sudan takes UAE to World Court over ‘genocide’ in Darfur – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Sudan has initiated legal proceedings against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing the UAE of being the driving force behind alleged genocide in Darfur. Sudan claims the UAE supports the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with arms and logistics, facilitating the genocide of the non-Arab Masalit people. The UAE denies these allegations, citing a lack of credible evidence. This development could escalate tensions and impact regional stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The conflict in Sudan, marked by a power struggle between the Sudanese army and the RSF since 2023, has resulted in significant humanitarian crises. Sudan’s legal action against the UAE at the ICJ highlights the internationalization of the conflict. The accusations of genocide and the alleged involvement of a foreign state could lead to increased international scrutiny and potential diplomatic fallout. The UAE’s denial and counter-accusations suggest a complex geopolitical landscape, with potential implications for international relations and regional alliances.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The case at the ICJ poses several strategic risks:

• National Security: The conflict may further destabilize Sudan, potentially leading to increased violence and humanitarian crises.
• Regional Stability: Accusations against the UAE could strain relations within the Gulf Cooperation Council and affect regional alliances.
• Economic Interests: Prolonged instability in Sudan may disrupt trade routes and impact economic activities in the region.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic engagement between Sudan and the UAE to de-escalate tensions and seek a peaceful resolution.
• Support international monitoring and verification mechanisms to ensure transparency and accountability in the conflict.
• Promote humanitarian assistance and protection for affected populations in Darfur.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Diplomatic efforts lead to a resolution at the ICJ, reducing tensions and fostering regional cooperation.
Worst-case scenario: Escalation of conflict and international involvement, leading to broader regional instability.
Most likely outcome: Prolonged legal proceedings with intermittent diplomatic engagements, maintaining a status quo of regional tension.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Muawia Osman – Representing Sudan at the ICJ.
• Reem Ketait – Representing the UAE’s position in response to Sudan’s allegations.
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – Allegedly supported by the UAE, involved in the conflict in Darfur.
• International Court of Justice (ICJ) – The legal body where the case is being heard.