Published on: 2025-07-04

Intelligence Report: Sudan War – A Simple Guide to What is Happening

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The conflict in Sudan has escalated into a severe humanitarian crisis, with significant implications for regional stability. The power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) threatens to further destabilize the region and exacerbate existing tensions. Immediate international attention and intervention are required to prevent further deterioration and potential regional spillover.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Potential biases in assessments have been identified and addressed through structured challenge techniques, ensuring a balanced view of the conflict dynamics.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic forecasting indicates a high likelihood of continued conflict escalation, with potential for regional involvement if current trends persist.

Network Influence Mapping

The influence of external actors, including alleged support from the UAE and Libya for the RSF, has been mapped, highlighting complex regional power dynamics.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

Ideological narratives driving the conflict have been deconstructed, revealing deep-seated ethnic and political tensions that fuel ongoing hostilities.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The conflict poses significant risks, including the potential for Sudan to split further, increased refugee flows, and the destabilization of neighboring countries. The involvement of external actors could lead to a broader regional conflict, impacting global security and economic interests.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate diplomatic engagement is recommended to mediate between conflicting parties and establish a ceasefire.
• Humanitarian aid should be prioritized to address the urgent needs of displaced populations.
• Best Case: A negotiated settlement leads to a power-sharing agreement and stabilization.
• Worst Case: Escalation into a full-scale regional conflict involving multiple state actors.
• Most Likely: Prolonged conflict with intermittent ceasefires and continued humanitarian distress.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), Khalifa Haftar

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional conflict, humanitarian crisis, power struggle