Published on: 2025-10-29

Intelligence Report: Sudan war takes a turn as paramilitary force captures Darfur threatening to split the country – ABC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are positioning themselves for prolonged control over Darfur, potentially leading to a de facto partition of Sudan. This scenario is supported by their strategic alliances and financial networks. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Increase diplomatic engagement with regional actors to mediate and stabilize the situation, while monitoring RSF’s financial and military activities.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The RSF’s capture of Darfur is a strategic move to consolidate power and resources, aiming for long-term control and potential secession of the region.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The RSF’s actions are a tactical maneuver to pressure the Sudanese government into negotiations, leveraging control of Darfur as a bargaining chip without intending to secede.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported due to the RSF’s historical patterns of consolidating power, their financial independence through gold mining, and established alliances with regional powers like the UAE and Libya.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The RSF’s financial independence and regional alliances are sustainable. The Sudanese government lacks the capacity to regain control.
– **Red Flags**: Potential underestimation of the Sudanese army’s resilience and international diplomatic interventions. Possible exaggeration of RSF’s intentions by adversaries.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical**: A split in Sudan could destabilize the region, affecting neighboring countries and international interests.
– **Economic**: Control over Darfur’s resources could shift economic power dynamics within Sudan.
– **Humanitarian**: Continued conflict may exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, increasing displacement and suffering.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage with regional powers to mediate and prevent further escalation.
• Monitor RSF’s financial transactions and military movements to anticipate further actions.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best: Successful mediation leads to a power-sharing agreement.
  • Worst: Full-scale conflict results in Sudan’s partition and regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Prolonged standoff with intermittent skirmishes and humanitarian issues.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (RSF leader)
– Abdel Fattah Burhan (Sudanese army chief)
– Khalifa Haftar (Libyan strongman)

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, geopolitical instability, humanitarian crisis