Published on: 2025-04-14

Intelligence Report: Sudan war to enter third year as RSF assaults in Darfur intensify – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The conflict in Sudan is entering its third year with intensified assaults by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Darfur. The humanitarian situation is dire, with millions displaced and facing famine. International efforts are underway to address the crisis, but immediate action is required to protect civilians and ensure aid access. Key recommendations include diplomatic engagement and enhanced humanitarian support.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The conflict between the RSF and the Sudanese military has resulted in significant civilian casualties and displacement. Recent RSF advances in Darfur, particularly the capture of the Zamzam camp, have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis. The United Nations and rights groups are urging for an immediate cessation of hostilities and unimpeded humanitarian access. The international community’s response, including a meeting in London, aims to address these challenges.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict poses severe risks to regional stability and international security. The displacement of nearly 13 million people and the worsening famine could lead to increased migration pressures and regional destabilization. Economically, the conflict disrupts local markets and international trade routes. The humanitarian crisis demands urgent attention to prevent further deterioration.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire and initiate peace talks between conflicting parties.
• Enhance humanitarian aid delivery by securing safe corridors and increasing international funding.
• Implement monitoring mechanisms to ensure compliance with international humanitarian law.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful diplomatic interventions lead to a ceasefire and improved humanitarian conditions.
Worst-case scenario: Continued conflict results in further civilian casualties and regional destabilization.
Most likely outcome: Protracted conflict with intermittent international engagement and limited humanitarian relief.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report references Mohamed Osman from Human Rights Watch, who highlights the humanitarian abuses in Sudan. Antonio Guterres from the United Nations condemns the attacks on civilians and calls for an end to hostilities. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese military are the primary entities involved in the conflict.