Published on: 2025-10-29

Intelligence Report: Sudan WHO ‘appalled’ by RSF maternity ward massacre – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the RSF deliberately targeted the maternity ward as part of a broader strategy to exert control over El Fasher through terror and ethnic cleansing. This assessment is based on the pattern of previous RSF activities and the strategic significance of El Fasher. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Increase international diplomatic pressure on RSF leaders and enhance humanitarian access to affected areas.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The RSF targeted the maternity ward as part of a deliberate campaign of ethnic cleansing and terror to consolidate control over El Fasher.
Hypothesis 2: The attack on the maternity ward was an unintended consequence of broader military operations, with no specific intent to target civilians.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 1 is better supported due to consistent reports of RSF’s historical pattern of ethnic violence and the strategic importance of controlling El Fasher. Hypothesis 2 lacks support as the attack’s nature and location suggest intentional targeting.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions for Hypothesis 1 include the RSF’s intent to use terror as a control mechanism and a pattern of ethnic targeting. A red flag is the potential bias in reports from sources with vested interests. For Hypothesis 2, the assumption is that collateral damage is a byproduct of military operations, but this is contradicted by the specific targeting of a civilian facility.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The RSF’s actions could escalate ethnic tensions, leading to further regional instability and potential international intervention. The humanitarian crisis may worsen, increasing displacement and regional refugee flows. The RSF’s control over Darfur could embolden similar groups, posing a broader security threat.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage with international bodies to impose targeted sanctions on RSF leaders.
• Facilitate humanitarian corridors to ensure aid reaches affected populations.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: International pressure leads to a ceasefire and humanitarian access.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of ethnic violence and regional conflict.
  • Most Likely: Continued RSF control with sporadic violence and limited humanitarian access.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti): Head of RSF.
– Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus: WHO Director-General.
– Kaja Kallas: EU Foreign Policy Chief.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, humanitarian crisis, ethnic violence, regional instability