Published on: 2025-03-22

Intelligence Report: Sudanese army seizes presidential palace after two years of civil war – ABC News (AU)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Sudanese army has taken control of the presidential palace in Khartoum, marking a significant development in the ongoing civil war. This event is likely to lead to a de facto partition of Sudan, with distinct zones controlled by the military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The capture of the palace is a symbolic and strategic victory for the military, potentially altering the dynamics of the conflict. Immediate attention is required to address the humanitarian crisis and prevent further escalation.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The seizure of the presidential palace by the Sudanese army represents a pivotal moment in the civil war that erupted following the deposition of Omar al-Bashir. The palace, a symbol of national power, has been a focal point of the conflict. The military’s control over this strategic asset suggests a shift in power dynamics, potentially leading to a partition of Sudan into zones controlled by the military and the RSF. The ongoing conflict has resulted in significant humanitarian challenges, including displacement and violence against civilians.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The capture of the presidential palace has several implications:

• National Security: The potential partition of Sudan poses a risk to national unity and could lead to prolonged instability.
• Regional Stability: Neighboring countries may experience spillover effects, including refugee flows and regional tensions.
• Economic Interests: Continued conflict will likely exacerbate economic challenges, impacting trade and investment in the region.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to mediate between conflicting parties and prevent further escalation.
• Increase humanitarian aid to address the immediate needs of displaced populations and affected civilians.
• Support initiatives aimed at establishing a ceasefire and a framework for political dialogue.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: A negotiated settlement leads to a ceasefire and a political solution, stabilizing the region.
Worst-case scenario: The conflict intensifies, resulting in further displacement and humanitarian crises.
Most likely outcome: Prolonged conflict with intermittent skirmishes and a gradual shift towards partition.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations without providing roles or affiliations:

• Omar al-Bashir
• Nabil Abdullah
• Suleiman Sandal
• Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo
• Catherine Russell
• Christopher Lockyear