Published on: 2025-05-20

Intelligence Report: Sudan’s Army Declares Khartoum State Completely Free of Paramilitary RSF – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Sudan’s army has declared Khartoum state free of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) following intense battles. This development marks a significant shift in the ongoing civil conflict, potentially altering power dynamics in the region. Continued vigilance is necessary to monitor residual RSF activities and the broader implications for regional stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Potential biases were identified and mitigated through structured challenges, ensuring an objective assessment of the conflict’s status and future trajectory.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic forecasting suggests a moderate likelihood of continued skirmishes in isolated areas, with potential escalation if external support for RSF increases.

Network Influence Mapping

Influence mapping indicates that Sudan’s army holds significant control in the northeast, while RSF retains influence in western regions, particularly Darfur.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The recapture of Khartoum could lead to a temporary stabilization in the region; however, the risk of RSF regrouping remains. The conflict has already displaced millions and caused significant casualties, with ethnic violence posing a persistent threat. The potential for foreign intervention or support to either side could further complicate the situation.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance monitoring of RSF activities in western Sudan to preempt potential resurgence.
• Support diplomatic efforts aimed at conflict resolution and humanitarian aid distribution.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Sustained peace in Khartoum leads to broader national reconciliation efforts.
  • Worst Case: Renewed RSF offensives destabilize the region, prompting international intervention.
  • Most Likely: Continued localized skirmishes with gradual stabilization in Khartoum.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional stability, conflict resolution, humanitarian impact