Published on: 2026-03-11

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Intelligence Report: Sudan’s devastating war rages on as regional rivalries deepen

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing civil war in Sudan, now approaching its fourth year, is increasingly influenced by regional powers, complicating prospects for resolution and threatening broader regional stability. The conflict’s entrenchment and external involvement suggest a protracted struggle with significant humanitarian and geopolitical consequences. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The conflict in Sudan will remain unresolved in the near term due to entrenched regional interests and the sustained support of external actors. Evidence includes the ongoing military stalemate and the backing of Sudan’s belligerents by regional powers. Key uncertainties include the potential for shifts in external support or diplomatic breakthroughs.
• Hypothesis B: A diplomatic resolution could be reached if external actors prioritize stability over influence, potentially through sustained international mediation efforts like the Quad’s roadmap. Evidence for this includes initial diplomatic progress, though it is contradicted by ongoing military support to belligerents.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the consistent pattern of external support prolonging the conflict. Indicators that could shift this judgment include a significant reduction in external military aid or a successful diplomatic intervention.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: External actors will continue to prioritize their strategic interests over humanitarian concerns; the Sudanese military and RSF will remain unwilling to compromise without significant external pressure; regional powers view the conflict as a zero-sum game.
• Information Gaps: Detailed intelligence on the internal decision-making processes of key external actors; the full extent of military and logistical support provided to Sudanese factions.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in reporting from sources aligned with external actors; risk of manipulation in public narratives by parties to the conflict to gain international sympathy or support.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict in Sudan could exacerbate regional instability, drawing in neighboring countries and potentially merging with other regional conflicts. This could lead to a broader geopolitical realignment in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.

• Political / Geopolitical: Increased regional polarization and potential for new alliances or conflicts among external actors.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Heightened risk of cross-border insurgencies and the spread of extremist ideologies due to weakened state control.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased cyber operations targeting regional actors and misinformation campaigns to influence international perceptions.
• Economic / Social: Prolonged conflict could lead to economic destabilization, increased refugee flows, and humanitarian crises in neighboring countries.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance intelligence collection on external support dynamics; engage in diplomatic efforts to pressure regional actors towards de-escalation.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Strengthen regional partnerships to mitigate spillover effects; develop contingency plans for humanitarian assistance and refugee management.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Successful diplomatic intervention leads to a ceasefire and peace talks.
  • Worst: Escalation into a broader regional conflict involving multiple states.
  • Most-Likely: Continued stalemate with sporadic diplomatic efforts and sustained external support for belligerents.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (Sudanese army chief)
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• United Arab Emirates (RSF supporter)
• Egypt, Eritrea, Turkiye, Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia (supporters of Sudanese army)
• United Nations, Arab League (recognize Sudanese army leadership)

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, regional conflict, external intervention, humanitarian crisis, geopolitical dynamics, military stalemate, diplomatic efforts, regional stability

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Deconstruct and track propaganda or influence narratives.

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