Published on: 2025-11-07

Intelligence Report: Sudan’s civil war rages despite Trump administration’s push for peace – CBS News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing civil war in Sudan persists despite international diplomatic efforts, including those led by the Trump administration. The most supported hypothesis suggests that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are strategically using truces to regroup and strengthen their position. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Increase diplomatic pressure on regional allies to enforce a genuine ceasefire and support humanitarian efforts.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The RSF is genuinely interested in peace and is using the humanitarian truce as a step towards conflict resolution.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The RSF is using the truce as a strategic pause to regroup and strengthen its military position.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis B is better supported. The RSF’s history of blockades and recent military actions suggest a pattern of strategic maneuvers rather than genuine peace efforts.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the RSF’s agreement to a truce indicates a willingness to negotiate. This may overlook their tactical use of truces.
– **Red Flags**: The lack of detailed confirmation on the truce proposal and the RSF’s continued military activities raise questions about their commitment to peace.
– **Blind Spots**: Potential underestimation of the RSF’s strategic capabilities and intentions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Patterns**: The RSF’s actions may lead to prolonged conflict, increasing regional instability.
– **Cascading Threats**: Prolonged conflict could exacerbate humanitarian crises and trigger refugee flows, impacting neighboring countries.
– **Potential Escalation**: Continued RSF aggression could provoke international military intervention or increased support for the Sudanese army.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage regional powers, particularly Egypt and Saudi Arabia, to leverage their influence over the RSF for a genuine ceasefire.
• Enhance monitoring of the truce to ensure compliance and prevent RSF regrouping.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best: Successful enforcement of a ceasefire leads to peace talks.
  • Worst: RSF uses the truce to launch a major offensive, escalating the conflict.
  • Most Likely: Continued skirmishes with intermittent truces, prolonging the conflict.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
– Sudanese Army
– Trump Administration
– Biden Administration
– International partners: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, conflict resolution, humanitarian crisis