Published on: 2025-04-15

Intelligence Report: Sudan’s civil war two years on is there any hope for peace – The Week Magazine

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing civil war in Sudan, now entering its third year, presents a dire humanitarian crisis with little immediate hope for peace. Despite international efforts, including a summit in London, the absence of direct involvement from the warring factions limits the potential for a breakthrough. The conflict has resulted in significant casualties and displacement, with 64% of the population reliant on humanitarian aid. Strategic recommendations focus on increasing diplomatic pressure on regional actors and fostering inclusive dialogue.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The civil war in Sudan began on 15 April 2023, following escalating tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. The conflict has resulted in up to 150,000 deaths and over 12 million displaced individuals. The London summit, while a step towards international coordination, lacks direct engagement from the Sudanese government and the rival paramilitary group, limiting its effectiveness in achieving peace. The risk of Sudan splitting into two rival administrations is increasing, with potential partition on the horizon.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to regional stability and international security. The humanitarian crisis, characterized by widespread displacement and sexual violence, threatens to destabilize neighboring countries. Economic interests are also at risk, with potential disruptions to trade routes and regional markets. The lack of direct dialogue between the warring parties exacerbates these risks, as does the potential for external actors to further fuel the conflict.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Increase diplomatic pressure on regional actors, including those in the Gulf, UAE, and Egypt, to support peace efforts.
• Facilitate inclusive dialogue that involves all stakeholders, including the warring factions, to foster a sustainable peace process.
• Enhance humanitarian aid coordination to address the immediate needs of displaced populations and mitigate the humanitarian crisis.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful diplomatic efforts lead to a ceasefire and the initiation of peace talks, reducing violence and stabilizing the region.
Worst-case scenario: Continued conflict results in further displacement, humanitarian crises, and potential partition of Sudan.
Most likely outcome: Prolonged conflict with intermittent international engagement, maintaining the status quo of instability and humanitarian need.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report references significant individuals and organizations without detailing roles or affiliations. Key figures include Jehanne Henry, who emphasizes the need for international pressure on conflict enablers, and unnamed British officials involved in organizing the London summit.