Published on: 2025-07-23

Intelligence Report: Sudans competing authorities are beholden to militia leaders say analysts – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing conflict in Sudan is characterized by a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), both of which are aligning with various militia groups to consolidate power. This dynamic has resulted in the formation of parallel governance structures, complicating efforts for a unified national government. Analysts suggest that these alliances are driven by strategic interests to maintain battlefield advantages and control over resources.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Potential biases in assessing the influence of militia groups have been challenged through alternative hypothesis generation and scenario testing.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic models indicate a high likelihood of continued conflict escalation, with potential for increased regional instability.

Network Influence Mapping

Mapping reveals complex interdependencies between militia leaders and political figures, highlighting the fragmented nature of authority in Sudan.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The fragmentation of authority in Sudan poses significant risks, including the potential for prolonged civil conflict and humanitarian crises. The involvement of militia groups in governance could lead to increased human rights violations and destabilization of neighboring regions. Economic impacts are likely, with disruptions in trade and resource allocation.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage diplomatic engagement with key stakeholders to facilitate dialogue and conflict resolution.
• Support initiatives aimed at strengthening civilian governance structures to reduce militia influence.
• Scenario-based projections suggest that without intervention, the most likely outcome is a protracted conflict with significant humanitarian costs.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Kamil Idris, Gebreil Ibrahim, Mini Arko Minawi, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, Tahir al-Hajar, Hemedti, Alaa Nugud

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional instability, militia influence, governance challenges