Published on: 2025-03-30

Intelligence Report: Sudans RSF confirms retreat from Khartoum eyes stronger return – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have confirmed their strategic retreat from Khartoum, with intentions to return in a stronger position. This maneuver is described as tactical, aimed at regrouping and strengthening their forces. The RSF’s withdrawal comes as the Sudanese army consolidates its control over key areas in Khartoum and Omdurman. The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to regional stability and has exacerbated humanitarian crises, including widespread hunger and displacement.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The RSF’s retreat from Khartoum is a calculated move to preserve their forces amid increasing pressure from the Sudanese army. The RSF leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, has indicated that this is a temporary withdrawal, with plans to return more powerful. The Sudanese army, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has made significant gains, reclaiming strategic locations such as the presidential palace and the airport. The conflict has intensified the humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and thousands killed.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict between the RSF and the Sudanese army presents several strategic risks:

• National Security: The power struggle could lead to further destabilization, affecting national security and governance.
• Regional Stability: The conflict may spill over into neighboring regions, exacerbating existing tensions and conflicts.
• Economic Interests: Prolonged instability could deter foreign investment and disrupt economic activities, worsening the economic crisis.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The conflict has already led to a severe humanitarian crisis, with famine conditions reported in parts of the country.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to facilitate negotiations between conflicting parties to reach a peaceful resolution.
• Increase humanitarian aid and support to address the immediate needs of displaced populations and mitigate the famine crisis.
• Strengthen regional cooperation to prevent the conflict from spreading and destabilizing neighboring countries.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful negotiations lead to a ceasefire and a roadmap for a peaceful transition to civilian rule.

Worst-case scenario: The conflict escalates, leading to further humanitarian disasters and regional instability.

Most likely outcome: Continued skirmishes between the RSF and the Sudanese army, with intermittent negotiations and international pressure for a resolution.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. These individuals play crucial roles in the ongoing conflict and its potential resolution.