Published on: 2025-11-03

Intelligence Report: Survivors report mass killings abductions in Sudan’s El Fasher after RSF takeover – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The situation in El Fasher, Sudan, following the RSF takeover, is dire, with reports of mass killings and abductions. The most supported hypothesis is that the RSF and allied militias are systematically targeting civilians to consolidate control. Confidence level: Moderate. Immediate international intervention is recommended to prevent further humanitarian disaster and stabilize the region.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The RSF and allied militias are deliberately committing atrocities to instill fear and consolidate control over El Fasher.
– **Supporting Evidence**: Reports of mass killings, abductions, and targeted violence against civilians; strategic importance of El Fasher as a stronghold.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The violence is a result of chaotic and uncontrolled actions by rogue elements within the RSF and allied militias, not a coordinated strategy.
– **Supporting Evidence**: Lack of direct statements from RSF leadership claiming responsibility; possibility of fragmented command structure leading to uncoordinated actions.

Using Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), Hypothesis A is better supported due to the systematic nature of the reported atrocities and the strategic importance of controlling El Fasher.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The RSF has effective control over its allied militias; reports from survivors and humanitarian groups are accurate and unbiased.
– **Red Flags**: Potential exaggeration or misinformation in reports; lack of independent verification; possible bias in survivor accounts.
– **Blind Spots**: Limited access to the region for independent observers; potential underreporting of RSF casualties or internal dissent.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing violence in El Fasher could lead to a large-scale humanitarian crisis, exacerbating food shortages and displacement. The instability may spill over into neighboring regions, increasing regional tensions and potentially drawing in external actors. The psychological impact on survivors and displaced populations could lead to long-term societal trauma and hinder reconciliation efforts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate diplomatic pressure on RSF leadership to cease hostilities and allow humanitarian access.
• Deployment of international observers to verify reports and provide unbiased assessments.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Ceasefire agreement facilitated by international mediation, leading to stabilization.
  • **Worst Case**: Escalation of violence leading to regional conflict and humanitarian catastrophe.
  • **Most Likely**: Continued sporadic violence with intermittent international intervention attempts.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti)
– Sudanese Armed Forces
– RSF and allied militias

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, humanitarian crisis, regional instability, conflict resolution