Published on: 2025-02-25

Intelligence Report: Syria Conference Lays Out Post-Assad Priorities but Kurds Not Invited – Bangkok Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent conference in Damascus aimed at setting priorities for a post-Assad Syria has excluded Kurdish representation, potentially undermining efforts for a unified national dialogue. Key agreements include the state’s monopoly on arms and the formation of a new national army. The exclusion of Kurdish forces, who control significant territories in northern and northeastern Syria, could lead to further instability and hinder the peace process. Immediate engagement with Kurdish leaders is recommended to ensure comprehensive national representation and to mitigate risks of prolonged conflict.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

ACH (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses)

The conference’s exclusion of Kurdish groups suggests competing priorities between the Syrian interim government and Kurdish forces. The hypothesis that the exclusion is a strategic move to consolidate power within a state-controlled framework is supported by the emphasis on a state monopoly on arms.

Indicators Development

Early indicators of potential conflict include the Kurdish administration’s public criticism of the conference and the lack of Kurdish representation. Monitoring statements from Kurdish leaders and any mobilization of forces will be crucial in assessing the likelihood of escalated tensions.

Scenario Analysis

Potential scenarios include:
– **Best-case:** Inclusion of Kurdish representatives in future dialogues leading to a comprehensive peace agreement.
– **Worst-case:** Escalation of conflict due to Kurdish exclusion, resulting in renewed hostilities.
– **Most likely:** Continued tensions with sporadic negotiations, delaying a unified national government.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The exclusion of Kurdish forces poses significant risks to regional stability and the peace process in Syria. Without Kurdish participation, the legitimacy of any agreements reached is questionable, potentially leading to renewed conflict. The situation also poses risks to international interests, including the potential for increased refugee flows and the resurgence of extremist groups exploiting the power vacuum.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage Kurdish leaders in dialogue to ensure their inclusion in future peace processes.
• Encourage international mediators to facilitate discussions between conflicting parties.
• Support initiatives that promote the integration of Kurdish forces into a national framework.

Outlook:

– **Best-case:** Successful integration of Kurdish forces into the national army and government, leading to a stable and unified Syria.
– **Worst-case:** Prolonged conflict due to exclusionary practices, resulting in further destabilization.
– **Most likely:** Gradual progress towards inclusion with intermittent setbacks due to entrenched political interests.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:
– Ahmed Al Sharaa
– Houda Atassi
– Hassan Mohammed Ali
– Benjamin Netanyahu
– Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)
– Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)