Published on: 2025-02-25

Intelligence Report: Syria convenes dialogue conference without YPG – Hurriyet Daily News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Syria has initiated a national dialogue conference in Damascus, excluding the YPG, a group linked to the PKK. This conference marks a significant phase in Syria’s post-conflict governance and aims to establish a state monopoly on weapons and transitional justice. The exclusion of armed groups like the YPG and others highlights ongoing tensions and the Syrian government’s intent to consolidate control. The event is pivotal for Syria’s future governance and regional stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

ACH

The exclusion of the YPG suggests a strategic move by Syrian authorities to weaken groups perceived as threats to state sovereignty. Competing hypotheses include efforts to centralize power and reduce foreign influence.

Indicators Development

Indicators of potential radicalization or terrorist planning include increased rhetoric from excluded groups and any mobilization of forces in northern Syria.

Scenario Analysis

Potential scenarios include successful integration of opposition forces into the national framework, or increased insurgency activities by excluded groups, impacting regional security.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The exclusion of the YPG and other armed entities could lead to heightened tensions and potential conflict in northern Syria. This poses risks to regional stability and could impact international relations, particularly with countries opposed to the PKK. Economically, instability may deter investment and reconstruction efforts in Syria.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic engagement with excluded groups to mitigate potential insurgency risks.
• Support initiatives that promote inclusive governance and address minority rights to foster long-term stability.
• Enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms to monitor and counteract radicalization efforts.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful integration of opposition forces leads to a stable governance structure. Worst-case scenario: Excluded groups escalate conflict, destabilizing the region. Most likely outcome: Continued negotiations with intermittent conflict in contested areas.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations, including Bashar al-Assad, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the Syrian Democratic Forces. These entities play crucial roles in shaping Syria’s political landscape.