Published on: 2026-01-05

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report: Taiwanese infrastructure suffered over 25 million Chinese cyberattacks per day in 2025 report reveals

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Taiwanese National Security Bureau reports a significant increase in cyberattacks from China, with 2.63 million daily incidents in 2025, marking a 6% rise from the previous year. These attacks are part of a broader “hybrid war” strategy by China, targeting critical infrastructure and coinciding with military and political events. The most supported hypothesis is that these actions are deliberate attempts to destabilize Taiwan. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The cyberattacks are a coordinated effort by China as part of a hybrid warfare strategy to destabilize Taiwan. This is supported by the timing of attacks coinciding with military patrols and political events. Key uncertainties include the full extent of China’s strategic objectives and internal decision-making processes.
• Hypothesis B: The cyberattacks are primarily conducted by independent Chinese-speaking hacking groups acting in alignment with, but not directly controlled by, the Chinese government. This hypothesis is less supported due to the strategic alignment of attacks with Chinese national interests and military activities.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the alignment of cyberattacks with military and political events, suggesting a coordinated strategy. Indicators that could shift this judgment include evidence of decentralized decision-making among hacking groups or lack of direct government involvement.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: China has the capability and intent to conduct coordinated cyber operations; Taiwan’s reporting is accurate and comprehensive; Chinese cyber operations are part of a broader geopolitical strategy.
• Information Gaps: Detailed attribution of specific attacks to Chinese state actors; insights into China’s strategic decision-making processes; comprehensive data on the impact of these attacks on Taiwanese infrastructure.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in Taiwanese reporting due to political tensions; risk of misattribution of cyberattacks; possible Chinese disinformation campaigns to obscure true intentions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The increase in cyberattacks against Taiwan could exacerbate regional tensions and influence global perceptions of Chinese aggression. This development may lead to heightened security measures and international diplomatic responses.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential escalation in cross-strait tensions; increased international support for Taiwan; potential for diplomatic confrontations.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Heightened threat environment for Taiwanese critical infrastructure; increased need for cybersecurity defenses.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased cyber warfare capabilities and tactics; risk of information manipulation and propaganda.
• Economic / Social: Possible disruptions to economic activities; increased public anxiety and social unrest in Taiwan.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance monitoring of cyber threats; engage in diplomatic channels to address cyber aggression; strengthen cybersecurity defenses.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for critical infrastructure; foster international cybersecurity partnerships; invest in capability development for cyber defense.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Reduction in cyberattacks through diplomatic engagement and improved defenses.
  • Worst: Escalation to kinetic conflict due to unresolved cyber tensions.
  • Most-Likely: Continued cyberattacks with incremental improvements in Taiwan’s defensive posture.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Volt Typhoon, Brass Typhoon, Salt Typhoon (Chinese-speaking hacking groups)
• President Lai Ching-te (Taiwan)
• Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (Taiwan)
• Not clearly identifiable from open sources in this snippet for Chinese government officials.

7. Thematic Tags

cybersecurity, hybrid warfare, Taiwan-China relations, cyber-espionage, critical infrastructure, geopolitical tensions

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Adversarial Threat Simulation: Model and simulate actions of cyber adversaries to anticipate vulnerabilities and improve resilience.
• Indicators Development: Detect and monitor behavioral or technical anomalies across systems for early threat detection.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Quantify uncertainty and predict cyberattack pathways using probabilistic inference.

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