Published on: 2025-08-06

Intelligence Report: The Atlantics September Cover Story Anne Applebaum Reports From Sudan This Is What the End of the Liberal World Order Looks Like – The Atlantic

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the retreat of Western influence and the liberal world order in Sudan has led to increased foreign intervention and proxy conflicts, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Enhance diplomatic engagement and multilateral cooperation to stabilize the region and address humanitarian needs.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The decline of the liberal world order has directly led to increased foreign intervention in Sudan, resulting in a complex proxy war that exacerbates the humanitarian crisis.

Hypothesis 2: The internal dynamics and historical conflicts within Sudan are the primary drivers of the current crisis, with foreign intervention being a secondary factor that exploits existing vulnerabilities.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 1 is better supported due to the documented presence of multiple foreign actors with vested interests in Sudan, as highlighted in the report. The narrative of external influences shaping the conflict aligns with the observed geopolitical competition.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Hypothesis 1 assumes that foreign powers have sufficient influence to significantly alter the conflict dynamics in Sudan.
– Hypothesis 2 assumes that internal factors are the primary drivers of the conflict, with foreign intervention being opportunistic.

Red Flags:
– Potential bias in attributing the crisis predominantly to foreign intervention without sufficient evidence of their decisive impact.
– Lack of detailed analysis on the internal political and social dynamics within Sudan.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict in Sudan poses significant risks of regional destabilization, potentially affecting neighboring countries and international shipping lanes in the Red Sea. The involvement of multiple foreign actors increases the risk of escalation into a broader conflict. Economic instability and humanitarian crises could lead to increased migration pressures and security threats.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance diplomatic efforts to mediate between conflicting parties in Sudan and involve regional organizations to foster a sustainable peace process.
• Increase humanitarian aid and support to mitigate the immediate human suffering and prevent further displacement.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful international mediation leads to a ceasefire and gradual stabilization.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of proxy conflicts leads to regional spillover and increased global tensions.
  • Most Likely: Continued instability with intermittent foreign interventions and humanitarian challenges.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Anne Applebaum, Lynsey Addario, Abdalla Hamdok.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, geopolitical instability, humanitarian crisis, foreign intervention