Published on: 2025-11-19

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report:

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

There is a moderate confidence level that the recent wave of coups in Africa, particularly in the so-called “coup belt,” is driven by a combination of disenchantment with civilian governance and the rising political ambitions of military leaders. The most supported hypothesis is that these coups are a result of both internal dissatisfaction and external influences, including historical and geopolitical factors. Recommended actions include increased diplomatic engagement and support for democratic institutions in affected regions.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The coups are primarily driven by internal dissatisfaction with corrupt and ineffective civilian governments, leading military leaders to intervene as a corrective measure.

Hypothesis 2: The coups are influenced by external geopolitical factors, including foreign interventions and regional instability, which embolden military leaders to seize power.

Hypothesis 1 is more likely due to the consistent pattern of military interventions following public discontent and protests against civilian governments, as evidenced by the situations in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Madagascar. However, Hypothesis 2 cannot be entirely dismissed given the historical context of foreign interventions and their impact on regional stability.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions include the belief that military leaders are motivated by a genuine desire to improve governance and that public support for coups is widespread. Red flags include potential biases in interpreting military motivations and the risk of underestimating external influences. Deception indicators may involve military leaders overstating public support or downplaying personal ambitions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The continuation of military coups poses significant risks, including political instability, economic downturns, and potential humanitarian crises. There is a risk of contagion, where successful coups inspire similar actions in neighboring countries. Additionally, the normalization of military rule could undermine democratic institutions and lead to increased authoritarianism.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to support democratic governance and address the root causes of public dissatisfaction.
• Provide targeted aid and support to strengthen civilian institutions and promote transparency and accountability.
• Monitor regional developments closely to anticipate potential coup attempts and mitigate their impact.

Best-case scenario: Successful diplomatic interventions lead to a restoration of civilian governance and strengthened democratic institutions.

Worst-case scenario: Continued military rule results in widespread instability and further erosion of democratic norms.

Most-likely scenario: A mixed outcome where some countries transition back to civilian rule while others remain under military control.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Colonel Michael Randrianirina, Ibrahim Traoré, Aïssata Tall Sall.

7. Thematic Tags

Regional Focus, Regional Focus: Africa, Military Coups, Political Stability, Governance

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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