Published on: 2025-05-29

Intelligence Report: The Federal Government Is Gone Under Trump the Fight Against Extremist Violence Is Left Up to the States – ProPublica

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The report highlights a significant shift in the responsibility for combating extremist violence from the federal government to state-level entities during Donald Trump’s presidency. This transition has led to a fragmented approach to counter-terrorism, with varying levels of preparedness and strategy across states. The lack of federal coordination and funding has increased the vulnerability to extremist threats, necessitating a reevaluation of resource allocation and strategic planning at both state and federal levels.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Potential biases were identified and mitigated through structured challenge sessions, ensuring an objective assessment of the decentralization of counter-terrorism efforts.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic forecasting suggests an increased likelihood of extremist incidents due to the current patchwork of state-level efforts, with a potential escalation if federal support remains limited.

Network Influence Mapping

Mapping of state and local influence networks reveals varying degrees of effectiveness in counter-terrorism initiatives, highlighting the need for enhanced inter-state collaboration.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The decentralization of counter-terrorism efforts poses several strategic risks, including inconsistent threat response capabilities across states and increased potential for extremist activities. The lack of a unified federal strategy may lead to gaps in intelligence sharing and resource allocation, exacerbating vulnerabilities. Additionally, the redirection of federal focus away from domestic extremism could embolden extremist groups, increasing the risk of coordinated attacks.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance federal-state collaboration through the establishment of a centralized coordination body to streamline counter-terrorism efforts and intelligence sharing.
• Increase funding and resources for state-level initiatives, ensuring a standardized approach to threat assessment and response.
• Scenario-based projections suggest that without federal intervention, the most likely outcome is a continued rise in extremist activities. A best-case scenario involves the reallocation of federal resources to support state efforts, while a worst-case scenario sees further fragmentation and increased threat levels.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Donald Trump
– Dana Nessel
– Sharon Gilmartin

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus